Local Consultant: Support the DemRes Review initiative, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (IC)

Background Information:

Please kindly note that this vacancy is open for Kyrgyzstan nationals only

Duty Station: Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek (online/in-person)

Contract type: Local Individual Consultant (IC)

Duration: 35 working days from November 16, 2026 to May 30, 2027

Closing date: 08 November 2026, 18:00 Bishkek time

The Position:

Demographic change occurs through shifts in population size, composition (by age and sex), and territorial distribution and manifests, for example, in population ageing, youth bulge, changing household structure, distinct migration patterns, rural depopulation and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not merely outcomes of development; they are powerful drivers. They influence economic growth and transitions, labor markets, fiscal systems and the demand for and sustainability of social services like pensions, education, healthcare and employment. They can affect inequalities and social cohesion. And they interact with climate change in affecting our planet. The relationships are bidirectional. Socio-economic conditions, peace and stability, housing, access to health and education and employment, just to name a few, significantly determine morbidity and mortality, the realization or non-realization of fertility aspirations and migration flows. 

Amongst the questions linked to demographic shifts to which governments need to provide answers are the ones that relate to the future demand for public goods and services - like education, health, social protection, employment, physical infrastructure etc. - and the evolution of fiscal space. Population size, demographic composition and territorial distribution in fact shape the global and local demand for goods and services, and  fiscal revenues and public spending. Through the fourth outcome of its Strategic Plan, 2026-2029, UNFPA seeks to support member states towards evidence-based and rights-based adaptation to their demographic trajectories.

Part of UNFPA’s approach is support to member states in undertaking demographic resilience reviews. These reviews entail a comprehensive forecast of the demand for various public goods and services - education, health, social protection, labor market and other public goods and services - based on projected changes in the total population and the population age structure within a longer time horizon (e.g. up to 50 years). The forecasts include baseline estimates (applying current and/or historical ratios for various public goods and services (e.g. teacher/pupil ratio) and alternative estimates assuming defined levels of improvement  (based, for example, on national development visions, SDG targets and other nationally-determined targets). The demand forecasts are applied further to estimate the fiscal and revenue implications of changing population age structure, taking into consideration gender, regional and other disparities. 

Country Office is seeking the services of a national consultant to contribute to a multi-country activity as part of an interregional effort by UNFPA regional offices for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) and Arab States (AS) to support evidence-based policies for adaptation to demographic change: (1) demographic resilience reviews; and (2) foresight-based scenario planning in selected countries. On demographic resilience review, the national consultant will work closely and in a complementary manner with an international consultant leading the work in selected countries. The results of the demographic resilience reviews will feed into a complementary scenario-based foresight analysis to broaden the range of probable and plausible scenarios of future demand for and supply of public services and goods taking into consideration other relevant factors and strengthen countries’ long-term planning. The national consultant will also support this part of the activity. A standard methodological approach will be developed and used across the two regions and the selected countries. 

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled. UNFPA’s three transformative results by 2030 consists of: ending preventable maternal deaths; ending unmet need for family planning and; ending gender-based violence and harmful practices.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff, who embody these international norms and standards, and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates that transform, inspire and deliver high impact and sustained results; we need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them and who commit to deliver excellence in programme results.

You would be responsible for:

The demographic resilience reviews will be based primarily on secondary data. The national consultant will support the analysis in close coordination with the international consultant. The foresight-based scenario planning part of the work will be in support of a second international consultant. The analysis will address the following questions for each of the selected countries:    

1. How will future demand for public goods and services, like education, health, social protection, pensions etc., evolve with projected changes in the  size, age structure and territorial distribution (e.g. rural vs. urban) of the population? In other words, how many more/less doctors, nurses, hospital beds, teachers, schools, childcare places, etc. will be needed in 20-50 years to respond to the needs of the population?
2. What will happen to public budgets and fiscal balances as the population size and structure change? In other words, how will the projected demographic shifts affect the government revenues (through changes in the working-age population and the dependency ratios, and the fiscal base) and expenditures (strongly driven by age-specific population groups)? 
3. How might other major factors or shifts in the horizon, for example, in the technological, social, political, environmental and other spheres, affect the demand for and the supply of public goods and services? In particular, how may technological  progress (e.g. digitalization and AI) and its uptake (e.g. telemedicine, virtual schooling, etc.) impact the provision of public goods and services? How can these shifts be integrated with demographic change for a more comprehensive (foresight-based) long-term planning of public goods and services?
4. How might the forecasts be influenced by and in turn influence gender, regional and other disparities? 

The national consultant will undertake the following tasks: 

1. Support inception and planning by undertaking the following tasks: 

1. Review the project concept note and other demographic resilience reviews developed by UNFPA and contribute to refining the methodological approach for the assignment to reflect national circumstances.
2. Prepare a background summary on the country's demographic, socio-economic and institutional context. This includes collecting and compiling pertinent sectoral information, such as sectoral set-up, long-term planning approaches and procedures, profiles, legislation, policies and strategies relevant to demographic resilience (e.g. in health, education, etc), including subnational population demographic projections, as guided by the lead international consultant.  
3. Prepare a comprehensive inventory of available demographic and sectoral data sources and assist in negotiating access to and compiling national datasets that are not publicly available. 
4. Contribute to preparation of the inception report and workplan.

2. Ensure effective stakeholder engagement. This entails  coordinating interviews, consultations and organizing  technical meetings and validation workshops as needed in close collaboration with the UNFPA Country Office.

3. Support the overall analysis and report development. This involves: 

1. Contributing to the analyses and the development of the draft reports - demographic resilience review and foresight-based scenario planning report - especially on the contents related to the country context.  
2. Providing quality assurance for the analysis and reports to ensure national relevance.  
3. Participating in discussion and validation of findings at national and multi-country levels.

Expected deliverables:

1. A background summary report on the country's demographic, socio-economic and institutional context, including legislation, policies and strategies relevant to demographic resilience and relevant sectors (e.g. in health, education, etc), and national and subnational population projections and demographic trends for the country by December 20, 2026.
2. A comprehensive inventory of available demographic and sectoral data sources, including data to be compiled from national datasets that are not publicly available by December 20, 2026. 
3. Datasets compiled for the analysis by December 20, 2026 (first batch) and by January 30, 2027 (second batch).  
4. A foresight workshop organized with national stakeholders and experts by March 30, 2027.
5. Documented contributions to all study reports, i.e. inception report, demographic resilience review report, foresight-based scenario planning report, and methodological report by May 30, 2027. 
6. All documents/reports/materials should be provided to the UNFPA Country office and international consultant in electronic versions.

Supervisory arrangements: 

The consultant will perform under the overall guidance of NPA on Youth/PD in collaboration with the EECA Regional Demographic Resilience and Policy Advisor and the international consultant. Performance will be monitored through weekly or fortnightly progress review meetings and submission of progress reports. 

Qualifications and Experience Education:

• Advanced university degree in demography, economics, statistics, social sciences or related fields.   
• Minimum 5 years of relevant professional experience in demographic, economic or development policy analysis.    
• Excellent analytical and writing skills.
• Demonstrated expertise in drafting technical reports and  policy briefs. 
• Strong communication and analytical skills.
• Familiarity with the mandate of UNFPA is an asset.
• Experience with the UN or INGO in the area of economic policies will be an asset.

Languages:

• Full professional proficiency in both written and oral English and Russian languages are required; 
• Working knowledge of Kyrgyz is desirable.

Required Competencies

Values:

• Exemplifying integrity,
• Demonstrating commitment to UNFPA and the UN system,
• Embracing cultural diversity,
• Embracing change

Core Competencies:

• Achieving results,
• Being accountable,
• Developing and applying professional expertise/business acumen,
• Thinking analytically and strategically,
• Working in teams/managing ourselves and our relationships,
• Communicating for impact

Functional Competencies:

• Providing logistical support
• Managing data
• Managing documents, correspondence and reports
• Managing information and work flow
• Planning, organizing and multitasking

Workforce diversity:

UNFPA is committed to achieving diversity within its workforce, and encourages all qualified candidates, irrespective to gender, nationality, disabilities, sexual orientation, culture, religious and ethnic backgrounds to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more. All applicants  will be treated in the strictest confidence. 

Payment Milestones:

The UN level is equal to NOC. The fee monthly rate is to be negotiated. 

Payment will be tied to the successful completion of deliverables upon submission of Progress Report and Certificate of Payment as follows:

• 50% upon submission of Deliverables 1, 2 and 3 (first batch). 
• 30% upon submission of Deliverable 3 (second batch) and Deliverable 4.
• 20% upon submission of all reports as part of Deliverable 5.

Disclaimer:

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process. Fraudulent notices, letters or offers may be submitted to the UNFPA fraud hotline http://www.unfpa.org/help/hotline.cfm

Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical insurance proof and other administrative requirements. 

The full version of Terms of reference will be published on UN/UNFPA Kyrgyzstan website: Kyrgyzstan.un.org/en