Result of Service
Deliverables 1. Residential Combustion Data and Methodology Note: Historical data, fuel-use assumptions, activity projections, emission factors and policy review. 2. Residential Combustion Emission Projections: WM projections for 2030, 2035 and 2040 by pollutant and NFR category, including WAM projections where necessary and an ERC assessment. 3. Final Sectoral Report and Calculation Files: Documented calculations, assumptions, uncertainty assessment, quality assurance and recommendations for residential emission reduction priorities. All deliverables shall be submitted in English, with calculations and supporting datasets provided in editable formats, including Excel where appropriate.
Duties and Responsibilities
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.UNEP-CCC is a leading international advisory institution on energy, climate and sustainable development. Its work focuses on helping developing countries and emerging economies transition to low-carbon development pathways and supporting the integration of climate resilience into national development. UNEP-CCC is actively involved in the implementation of the UN Environment Climate Change Strategy and Energy Programme. The NDC Partnership Action Fund (PAF) implementation team in Moldova requires a National Consultant for Air Pollutant Emission Projections with a focus on residential combustion related emissions. Moldova is preparing its 2026–2029 National Air Pollution Control Programme to meet national emission reduction targets for key air pollutants by 2030 and beyond. Under the NDC Partnership project, the consultant will develop and update relevant sectoral air pollutant inventory and emission projections to 2040 using international reporting standards and national energy data. The role is critical to supporting the Government of Moldova in delivering its air quality and climate commitments. The Republic of Moldova is developing the National Air Pollution Control Programme (NAPCP) for 2026–2029 in accordance with Article 8(d) of Law No. 98/2022 on Atmospheric Air Quality. The NAPCP addresses the national Emission Reduction Commitments (ERCs) established by Government Decision No. HG593/2024 of 28 August 2024 for nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), ammonia (NH₃) and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), with reduction targets for 2030–2039 and from 2040 onwards, relative to 2020 emission levels. Under the NDC Partnership Action Fund (PAF) Moldova Project, the Consultant will prepare and update the Residential Combustion sector air pollutant emission inventory in the relevant Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) tables and develop emission projections through 2040, in accordance with the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) reporting requirements, Annex I to the 2023 CLRTAP Reporting Guidelines and the applicable EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook methodology. The work will cover the relevant residential combustion source categories and the five pollutants subject to national ERCs, using historical inventory data, household fuel consumption and other relevant activity data, emission factors and documented assumptions. Other pollutants covered by the national inventory will also be addressed, as applicable. Based on the historical emission inventory and the effects of policies and measures already implemented or adopted, the Consultant will prepare With Measures (WM) emission projections for the Residential Combustion sector for the relevant NAPCP target years, including 2030, 2035 and 2040. The WM projections will be assessed against the national ERCs, taking into account the contribution of the residential sector to national emissions, to identify potential risks of non-compliance. With Additional Measures (WAM) emission projections will be prepared, where necessary, to assess the potential impact of additional policies and measures, including cleaner heating technologies, improved combustion efficiency, fuel switching and reduced reliance on high-emitting household heating systems. The assignment will support CLRTAP inventory reporting, implementation of the NAPCP 2026–2029, national air pollution control planning, assessment of progress towards the ERCs and identification of priorities for reducing emissions from residential fuel combustion. Objectives: To prepare and update the Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) inventory for the Residential Combustion sector for 2025 and develop air pollutant emission projections for 2030, 2035 and 2040, disaggregated by pollutant, fuel type and relevant NFR source category, under the With Measures (WM) scenario and, where necessary, the With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario. Task 1. Review of historical emissions and household energy use Review historical emission inventory data for residential combustion;Collect and analyse available data on household fuel consumption, heating systems, combustion appliances and household energy demand; Review relevant statistics and studies on the use of firewood, biomass, coal, natural gas, electricity and other heating fuels; Examine available information on rural and urban household heating patterns, where relevant; Identify data gaps and uncertainties affecting emission estimates. Task 2. Preparation of the WM scenario Establish the baseline year and document assumptions on household energy demand and fuel use; Develop projections of household heating demand, fuel mix and combustion technologies for 2030, 2035 and 2040; Consider adopted policies and measures affecting residential emissions, including building energy efficiency improvements, heating system modernisation, fuel switching and replacement of inefficient combustion appliances; Apply appropriate EMEP/EEA methodologies and emission factors, differentiating by fuel and combustion technology where data permit; Calculate projected emissions by pollutant, NFR category and projection year. Task 3. ERC assessment and WAM scenario Assess the contribution of residential combustion to projected national emissions and applicable ERCs; Identify fuels, technologies and source categories with significant projected emission contributions; Where necessary, assess additional measures, such as replacement of inefficient stoves and boilers, improved fuel quality, cleaner heating systems, building renovation and reductions in the use of highly polluting solid fuels; Estimate potential emission reductions and prepare WAM projections where required. Task 4. Quality assurance and policy recommendations Check the consistency of fuel consumption data, activity projections and emission factors; Document the treatment of uncertainty, particularly where household fuel use or appliance data are incomplete; Prepare tables, charts and editable calculation files; Recommend priorities for reducing residential combustion emissions and explain how the results can inform air quality management and monitoring planning. The assignment shall cover household and other residential combustion sources classified under the applicable NFR categories, including, as relevant: 1.A.4.a - Commercial/institutional - Stationary combustion: Fuel combustion in commercial and institutional buildings and facilities, including heating and hot-water production. 1.A.4.b.i – Residential - Stationary combustion: Fuel combustion in households for space heating, water heating and cooking. Includes emissions from residential heating systems, stoves, fireplaces and other stationary combustion appliances. Relevant to Moldova’s residential sector, particularly household heating. 1.A.4.b.ii – Residential - Household and gardening (mobile): Emissions from fuel combustion in household and gardening mobile equipment. In Moldova’s inventory documentation, this category has been reported together with 1.A.4.b.i; the consultant should verify the latest NFR reporting treatment. Fuel-specific breakdown under 1.A.4.b.i - Solid fuels, including firewood and coal: Emissions from household combustion of firewood, coal and other solid fuels, where used. Important for assessing particulate matter (PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀), black carbon, CO, NOₓ, SO₂ and NMVOC emissions. Fuel-specific breakdown under 1.A.4.b.i - Natural gas: Emissions from natural gas combustion in residential boilers, heaters and cooking appliances. Fuel-specific breakdown under 1.A.4.b.i - LPG and other fuels: Emissions from LPG and other fuels used in households, where applicable and reported in the national inventory. 1.A.4.c (1A4ci ,1A4cii, 1A4cii) - Agriculture/forestry/fishing: Stationary combustion and Mobile Combustion: Fuel combustion for stationary energy purposes in agriculture, forestry and fishing, where included in the national inventory. The pollutants to be assessed shall include NOx, NMVOCs, SO₂, NH₃ and PM₂.₅, where applicable to the sector source categories concerned for NFR and emissions projections calculation. The Consultant shall coordinate with the Team Leader and submit proposals for the ERC summary report.
