Consultancy - Technical Expert: Emergency Preparedness and Predictive Analytics

The Humanitarian Leadership Group on Supply Chain (HLGSC) is a cross-sector initiative bringing together humanitarian organisations, donors, and partners to strengthen how supply chains operate across the system. It aims to shift from fragmented, organisation-specific approaches to a coherent, system-wide model in which supply chains operate as a coordinated network and contribute strategically to humanitarian outcomes.

The work is structured across five interlinked thematic workstreams: procurement, sustainability, digitalisation, preparedness, and localisation. Together, they form a programme of change addressing shared structural challenges and strengthening alignment, interoperability, and collaboration across the system. Progress across workstreams is intended to be mutually reinforcing, and outputs are developed with system-wide applicability in mind.

Within this programme, the preparedness workstream focuses on supporting more informed and evidence-based preparedness discussions and decision-making by strengthening how predictive and risk information is translated into supply chain planning assumptions and operational decisions. By improving the approaches available to forecast-driven demand planning, the workstream seeks to support greater alignment among stakeholders and provide a stronger foundation for preparedness planning, investment decisions and future humanitarian supply chain strengthening. To support this, within a 12-month implementation period, the workstream will:

• develop and validate a forecast-driven demand planning methodology through a structured process of design, stakeholder engagement, proof-of-concept application, testing and expert review. The methodology will provide a practical approach for translating predictive and risk information into preparedness-related demand assumptions and planning decisions
• document lessons learned and explore considerations for future stewardship, governance and application of the methodology. This work will identify factors that may support future alignment, coordination and voluntary use of the methodology, while remaining exploratory in nature and informing potential future phases of work rather than establishing implementation arrangements during the current action

These outputs are developed collaboratively by co-lead organisations together with technical experts from across the sector, through structured iterative engagement.

The current action focuses on development, testing and validation of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology within a 12-month implementation period. Broader implementation, adoption and scaling are expected to occur beyond the scope of this action.

The technical expert provides full-time technical leadership for the preparedness workstream on behalf of the co-lead organisations. The consultant will serve as the central technical lead for the workstream and works closely with the co-lead organisations and other participating stakeholders to support development of workstream outputs. The technical expert leads the development, testing and refinement of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology, proof-of-concept and associated guidance, ensuring that outputs are technically coherent, grounded in operational realities, informed by sector experience, and suitable for their intended use. The consultant will support the development of a shared, evidence-based approach for translating predictive and risk information into preparedness-related demand assumptions and planning decisions, providing a common basis for preparedness dialogue and future humanitarian supply chain strengthening efforts.

Scope of work

The technical expert works across the full lifecycle of the 12-month action, including:

• review and analysis of existing forecasting approaches, preparedness planning methodologies, demand planning practices and relevant evidence
• definition of the scope, principles, process steps and intended use of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology
• technical design and development of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology, proof-of-concept and associated guidance
• drafting and iterative refinement of technical outputs and supporting guidance
• facilitation of technical discussions with expert and sector groups
• synthesis of consultation, expert review and stakeholder feedback
• support to testing, proof-of-concept application and validation activities in selected humanitarian contexts
• assessing the relevance, applicability, credibility and practical utility of the methodology through stakeholder engagement and testing
• identification of evidence gaps, limitations, assumptions and areas requiring refinement
• support to validation, finalisation and consolidation of outputs
• preparation of outputs for governance review and endorsement

The consultant will cover the development and validation of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology, proof-of-concept, associated guidance and supporting materials required to ensure that outputs are coherent, practical and usable. The consultant will also contribute to documenting lessons learned and considerations relevant to future stewardship and governance of the methodology, where these emerge through testing and stakeholder engagement.

Responsibilities

Technical leadership and content development

• provide overall technical leadership for the preparedness workstream
• lead the technical design, development, testing and refinement of the forecast-driven demand planning methodology, proof-of-concept and associated guidance
• ensure alignment of outputs with the agreed scope and intended use (including maintaining focus on translation of forecasting into decision-making)
• translate conceptual approaches into structured technical products, guidance, and draft tools
• leverage internal organisational experience to inform the technical direction
• ensure outputs are technically credible, relevant, and usable across diverse contexts

Representation and stakeholder engagement

• act as the primary technical representative of the preparedness workstream
• bring operational experience, lessons learned and technical expertise into co-lead discussions to inform decision-making and technical direction
• articulate and integrate evidence, operational experience and stakeholder perspectives into workstream outputs
• support alignment among co-lead organisations and participating stakeholders to ensure consistency of technical inputs
• support internal communication on the technical direction, status, and implications of the workstream

Cross-co-lead technical collaboration

• work closely with representatives of the co-lead organisations and participating stakeholders to shape workstream outputs
• support convergence across institutional perspectives and avoid parallel or organisation-specific approaches
• contribute to setting and aligning the technical direction of the workstream across co-leads
• support coherent joint positioning of co-lead organisations in external discussions
• identify and manage technical interdependencies between the forecast-driven demand planning methodology, associated outputs and related HLGSC workstreams
• Prepare presentation & inputs for the coordination board meeting for management

Technical facilitation and sector engagement

• lead the content side of sessions with the preparedness expert group
• lead the content side of sessions with the preparedness technical working group
• prepare technical materials, draft outputs, and decision points for consultation and review
• guide discussions toward concrete feedback, convergence, and refinement
• provide technical guidance to partners and participants engaged in the workstream
• represent the workstream in external discussions and contribute to wider sector engagement
• engage with external actors and initiatives to avoid duplication and build on existing work

Integration, refinement, and validation

• review, validate, and synthesise technical inputs from expert consultations, TWG discussions, bilateral exchanges, and testing activities
• refine and improve outputs iteratively
• ensure that stakeholder feedback and findings from testing activities are systematically incorporated into revised versions of the methodology and associated guidance
• ensure outputs are coherent, internally consistent, and ready for validation and use
• support preparation of outputs for governance review and endorsement
• lead on documenting lessons learned, limitations, assumptions, evidence gaps and considerations for future stewardship of the methodology.

A minimum of a first-level university degree in a relevant field is required.

Required

• substantial experience (typically 7+ years) in humanitarian supply chains or preparedness
• demonstrated experience in developing preparedness methodologies, forecasting approaches, demand planning tools, guidance, or system-level approaches
• experience working effectively across organisations and functions in complex, multi-stakeholder environments
• experience facilitating consensus-building and technical alignment across organisations and stakeholder groups

Required

• strong knowledge of forecasting, demand planning, preparedness, anticipatory action, or coordination in humanitarian settings
• strong drafting, analytical, and synthesis skills
• strong facilitation skills to guide technical discussions toward practical outcomes
• demonstrated ability to contribute and provide technical leadership without formal authority
• the credibility and communication skills required to act as the central technical voice of a co-lead organisation
• the ability to think at system level and translate complexity into practical, evidence-based and usable approaches
• fluent in spoken and written English.

Ways of working

The technical expert operates within a collaborative co-lead model. Within this model:

• the technical expert leads content
• the project management / coordination function leads process
• the expert group provides deep technical review and challenge
• the technical working group provides broader validation and alignment

The role contributes to collective delivery while providing technical leadership for the workstream as a whole. It requires the ability to influence, convene, and synthesise across organisations, guiding technical direction without formal line authority.

The technical expert works in close collaboration with other co-lead organisations, the expert group and the project management / coordination function to ensure that outputs are technically robust, informed by stakeholder engagement and testing activities, and aligned with the agreed objectives of the workstream.

Reporting and interaction lines

The technical expert reports through the relevant operational and/or technical reporting line within their organisation. In the context of the workstream, the technical expert:

• works closely with representatives of the co-lead organisations and participating stakeholders
• works in close partnership with the project management / coordination function
• contributes to technical co-lead coordination and decision-making
• leads technical engagement with the expert group and technical working group
• leads coordination of testing and validation activities with participating stakeholders
• contributes technical inputs to governance updates and other reporting as required
• supports preparation of technical outputs and supporting documentation for governance review and endorsement

Location and travel

The position will be based within IFRC, subject to agreement between the co-leads and the selected candidate. The role will be delivered through a combination of virtual engagement and in-person meetings, workshops and stakeholder consultations, as required.

Travel may be required to support stakeholder engagement, testing activities, governance processes and other workstream priorities, including engagement in selected humanitarian contexts, subject to project requirements and available resources.