MNA Fellow

The Agriculture and Food team in the LAC region has developed a framework to monitor how international fertilizer shocks translate into food prices and food security in the region. It has three parts:

• a biweekly retail fertilizer price monitor, with urea as the reference product, covering ten countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru);
• a six-component Fertilizer Price Shock Vulnerability Index that ranks country exposure, including a shock persistence score built from the biweekly series; and
• a three-scenario model (mild, severe, prolonged) that converts a domestic fertilizer price shock into additional food CPI pressure. It does so using a scenario coefficient, the domestic urea price shock, and the food share of household spending. The framework is documented in the draft analytical note Fertilizer and Food Prices Monitoring and Analysis: Latin America and the Caribbean (October 2026). The team plans to extend country coverage as price reporting allows. It also plans to keep the data portal and the analysis current. In addition, the team is currently conducting analytics under the Caribbean P-ASA to provide policy advice to Caribbean countries, particularly with respect to the recently prepared CARIOM and Jamaica AgriConnect Action Plans as well as the Guyana AgriConnect Action Plan, which is still under preparation. The fellow will work under the supervision of the Hiring Manager, in close collaboration with the team's economists and with country teams in the region. Duties and Responsibilities The fellow will support two workstreams. Workstream 1: Fertilizer analysis and monitoring in LAC
• Data collection. Collect and compile biweekly retail fertilizer price data (urea as the reference product) for the countries in the monitoring panel, using national sources, market reports, and other contacts. Gather the complementary data used in the Vulnerability Index (for example, import shares, sourcing concentration, food expenditure shares, and fiscal indicators). Add countries to the panel as data become available.
• Data quality and documentation. Clean, validate, and harmonize the series. Compute shocks against the 2025 baseline. Keep a clear record of sources, methods, and data gaps so the work can be replicated.
• Data portal. Update the fertilizer data portal regularly with new price data, indices, and country-level indicators. Make sure the portal content stays accurate, consistent with the methodology, and easy to use.
• Regular updates. Prepare regular (for example, biweekly or monthly) updates and short briefs that summarize price movements, countries crossing persistence thresholds, and changes in the Vulnerability Index and active scenario classification.
• Impact on food CPI. Apply the methodology in the LAC note to estimate the additional pressure on food CPI in each country. Update the parameters and results as new data arrive, and run sensitivity checks.
• Methodological support. Help test and refine the methodology. For example, compare biweekly with monthly series and review the transmission parameters against the latest evidence. Flag limitations clearly.
• Analytical products. Contribute to the analytical note, charts, tables, and presentations that draw on this work, including inputs for country teams and management. Workstream 2: Analysis under the Caribbean PASA
• Carry out analytical tasks under the Caribbean PASA, as agreed with the Hiring Manager. These tasks will include analysis linked to the CARICOM, Jamaica and Guyana AgriConnect Action Plans.
• Review the relevant literature, data sources, and country context. Prepare datasets, analysis, charts, and written inputs for PASA outputs.
• Contribute to the preparation of reports, briefs, and presentations for counterparts and for internal use. General
• Participate in team meetings and contribute to knowledge sharing within the region.
• Carry out other related tasks assigned by the Hiring Manager.