Local Consultant - ZDHS Fertility Dynamics and Reproductive Preferences

Background

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program is a globally recognized initiative designed to collect, analyse, and disseminate representative data on population, fertility, maternal and child health, nutrition, and family planning and other key demographic, health, socio-economic indicators that inform evidence based policy and program planning. Since its establishment in 1984 under the sponsorship of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the DHS Program has supported partner countries to track progress toward strategic developmental targets. In Zimbabwe, the DHS has a rich, multi-decade history, with successful rounds completed in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2015, and most recently, the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS).

The latest ZDHS 2023/24 primary data collection and main report were finalized and officially published in June 2025. While this national report provides highly valuable, high-level descriptive findings on key population, gender, and health indicators, it does not fully exploit the analytical potential of the hierarchical dataset. Detailed, sub-national multivariate modelling is urgently required to unpack geographic, socio-demographic, and economic disparities, thereby translating raw survey data into actionable policy intelligence.

Through the Regional Access and Accountability for Increased SRHR Equity (RAISE SRHR) Project, UNFPA, in collaboration with the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) seeks to engage Individual Consultant to undertake extended thematic analyses that will generate policy-relevant evidence, strengthen national analytical capacity, and inform implementation of Zimbabwe's National Development Strategy, the ICPD Programme of Action and the Sustainable Development Goals.

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The UNFPA Strategic Plan for 2026-2029 articulates the organization’s response to a complex global environment, providing a roadmap for resilience and renewal. It is designed to accelerate the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This mandate is pursued through a focus on four interconnected outcomes: ending the unmet need for family planning; ending preventable maternal deaths; ending gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapting to demographic change through evidence and rights-based policies. 

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff, who embody these international norms and standards and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

Purpose

The primary purpose of this consultancy is to undertake a rigorous secondary analysis of fertility dynamics, reproductive preferences, and related variables in the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) dataset and produce a publication-quality thematic report. The consultant will apply advanced demographic and statistical methods, including multivariable regression and other appropriate modelling techniques, while accounting for the complex survey design, to identify fertility levels, determinants, reproductive intentions, fertility preferences, unmet need for family planning, birth spacing, and inequalities across population groups. The analysis will also examine associations between fertility dynamics and key demographic, socio-economic, and reproductive health outcomes, including contraceptive use, age at first birth, educational attainment, women's empowerment, and the demographic dividend. The findings will generate policy-relevant evidence to strengthen national population planning, reproductive health programming, fertility policy, and evidence-based resource allocation to support sustainable development and harness Zimbabwe's demographic dividend.

Scope of work:

Under the overall guidance of the UNFPA Zimbabwe Representative and the direct supervision of the Strategic Information and Policy Specialist, the consultant will work in close collaboration with ZIMSTAT, the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC), and other relevant stakeholders to undertake an in-depth secondary analysis of the Fertility and fertility preferences module and related indicators from the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS)

Fertility Dynamics and Reproductive Preferences

• Drivers of Fertility Change: Apply multivariate demographic models to identify the socioeconomic, behavioural, and geographic determinants of fertility levels, timing of childbearing, and birth spacing.
• Fertility Decision-Making and Reproductive Intentions: Model the factors influencing fertility preferences, desired family size, and the mismatch between fertility intentions and reproductive outcomes to identify populations at risk of unintended childbearing.
• Policy and Demographic Impact Analysis: Quantify fertility inequalities across population groups and simulate the implications of changing fertility patterns for population growth, dependency, and Zimbabwe's demographic dividend to inform evidence-based policy and resource allocation.

Additional Cross-Module Analysis: The consultant shall undertake additional analyses of any relevant ZDHS 2023/24 modules and indicators that contribute to Young People and SRHR thematic area. The consultant shall appropriately account for the complex DHS survey design by applying sampling weights, clustering and stratification in all analyses. Statistical methods may include descriptive statistics, logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, Poisson regression, Cox proportional hazards models, multilevel models or other appropriate techniques.

Qualifications and Experience: 
 

Education:  

• Master’s degree, or a PhD in Demography, Social Statistics, Public Health, Sociology, or Epidemiology or related field.

   

Knowledge and Experience: 

The ideal consultant must possess a track record in complex demographic modelling, survey data analysis, and translation of quantitative evidence into strategic policy outputs. The following minimum qualifications and competencies are required:

• A minimum of 7 to 10 years of professional, documented experience conducting complex secondary data analysis and statistical modelling, with a proven focus on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS).
• Mastery of hierarchical dataset structures and standard DHS recode file formats 
• Expert-level programming skills in Stata or R. The consultant must demonstrate the ability to write clean, fully documented syntax files that incorporate complex survey design parameters (stratification, clustering, and multi-stage design weights).
• Demonstrated experience in data visualization, including spatial mapping using GIS and the generation of structured, high-impact graphs and matrices.
• Demonstrated professional experience in fertility and population studies, fertility analysis, reproductive preferences, population dynamics, demographic transition, demographic dividend, or demographic research, including policy development, programme evaluation, monitoring and evaluation, or applied demographic analysis.
• Strong understanding of fertility determinants, patterns, trends, and differentials, including fertility preferences, reproductive intentions, desired family size, age at first marriage and first birth, birth spacing, parity progression, fertility decision-making, unintended childbearing, and the socio-economic, cultural, behavioural, and geographic factors influencing fertility outcomes. Demonstrated knowledge of fertility transition, population projections, demographic dividend, and national population and fertility policies will be an added advantage.
• Excellent communication and analytical writing skills, with a proven ability to translate complex statistical and regression models into highly visual, concise policy briefs (2-3 pages) tailored specifically for high-level planners and lawmakers (such as Parliamentarians).
• Proven capacity in training and mentorship, with demonstrated experience leading hands-on capacity building and coaching for statisticians within national statistical offices (NSOs) or ministries.
• Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to work effectively in a multicultural environment with government officials, UN agency staff, and bilateral donors.

Languages: 

• Excellent communication skills in English 

UNFPA Work Environment:

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. Reasonable accommodation may be provided to applicants with disabilities upon request, to support their participation in the recruitment process. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more.

 Disclaimer:

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts.