Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting

Position title: Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting
Contract type / duration: 5-year fixed-term contract
Location: Geneva
Department: Vaccine Programmes & Markets (VPM)
Team: Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management (VFSM)
Reports To: Head, Vaccine Forecasting
N° of positions supervised (if applicable): 0
Career Step: 4

1. About the Role

The Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting sits within the Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management team in the Vaccine Programmes & Markets department. The role works closely with Market Shaping, Vaccine Programmes, Finance, and country delivery colleagues, and engages externally with UNICEF Supply Division and other partners involved in Gavi-supported vaccine programmes. Its core purpose is to lead forecasting for an assigned portfolio of vaccine programmes so that demand, supply, price, and cost projections support clear, timely, and well-informed operational and strategic decision-making.

2. Key Responsibilities

• Lead forecasting for a designated portfolio of vaccine programmes, producing demand, supply, price, and cost projections that inform operational planning and strategic decisions.
• Contribute to selected cross-cutting forecasting activities across Gavi’s vaccine portfolio that require specialised modelling, analysis, and coordination.
• Develop, maintain, and continuously improve vaccine forecasting models and supporting documentation to ensure forecasts are transparent, robust, and fit for decision-making.
• Coordinate the collection, validation, and integration of programme inputs into forecast updates, ensuring consistency across vaccine-specific forecasts and overall Gavi forecasting deliverables.
• Maintain linkages with related activities in other teams and organizations, coordinating forecasting support needs as appropriate
• Generate and analyse forecast scenarios, communicate results , and respond to analysis requests from internal and external stakeholders to support timely decisions.
• Monitor actuals against forecasts for selected vaccines, providing updates on forecast accuracy, key risks, and issues that may affect programme performance, supply continuity, or financial planning.
• Advise on vaccine-specific factors in forecasting and dose quantification considerations relevant to individual country planning and grant approval processes;
• Support vaccine working groups with forecasting expertise in the problem-solving of relevant issues that emerge, for example, in supply and demand imbalances and manufacturer disruptions;
• Contribute to in continuous improvement efforts in processes, methodologies, tools, and systems used in forecasting vaccine dose requirements, serving as focal point on designated topics;
• Contribute to core team enablement areas, including providing regular updates on forecast activities, developing standard operating procedures, updating KPIs and supporting continuity across the sub-team, including backup support as required
  
  Note: The essential functions listed in this section are not exhaustive of the job responsibilities; other duties may be assigned consistently with the department needs.
  
  3. Your Experience and Skills
  
  Professional Experience:
• Typically 8- 12 years of relevant experience in forecasting, supply planning, or demand planning roles within pharmaceutical (vaccine preferred), global public health, or FMCG environments.
• Experience in building and maintaining forecast models, with significant exposure to addressing both short and long-term projection needs.
• Background in the design, implementation, and improvement of individual forecasting tools, with additional experience in multiuser forecasting systems preferable.
• Background in functions working with programmatic, operational, and financial information from multiple sources, including data collection, management, reconciliation, quality control, and analytics;
• Experience supporting strategic and operational decision-making, gained in settings such as management consulting, product management, or comparable analytical roles.
• Experience working across multiple stakeholders and functions, including collaboration with programme, market, finance, and external partner counterparts in complex planning environments.
  
  Education & Qualifications:
• University degree in economics, finance, engineering, statistics, or other relevant quantitative disciplines is required; a master’s degree is preferred.
  
  Technical & Functional Skills:
• Skilled at various methods used in forecasting, including quantitative statistical approaches and expert judgement driven models.
• Analytical skills, able to translate complex historical data and forecast outputs into clear recommendations and decision support for operational and strategic stakeholders.
• Good attention to detail and data quality control, including validation, reconciliation, and effective judgement on approximations when appropriate.
• Excellent oral and written communication skills, able to synthesize complex information and communicate across disciplines and diverse stakeholders.
• Expertise in building, improving, and using Excel-based forecast models is required; skills with other forecasting platforms or technologies is desirable.
• Applied database (SQL) and scripting/programming skills (e.g. VBA, Python, R, or similar) is preferred.
• Artificial intelligence skills applied in the design, implementation, and use of forecasting models or similar tools is preferred.
  
  Languages Needed:
• Fluent English is required.
• French is desirable.
  
  4. How You Work (Behaviours and Mindsets)
• Works effectively across teams and organisations, building collaborative relationships and maintaining a strong service orientation in environments where influence is required without direct authority.
• Exercises sound judgment in complex or fast-moving situations, using structured thinking and appropriate approximation when decisions must be made with incomplete information.
• Takes ownership of priorities and delivers to deadlines, staying organised and focused when managing multiple demands and time-sensitive work.
• Approaches challenges proactively and constructively, identifying issues early, proposing practical solutions, and escalating risks when needed.
• Operates independently while adapting quickly to changing priorities, evolving programme needs, and multicultural working environments.