UNFPA Egypt - International Consultancy, Preparation to conduct the 2028 Population and Housing Census

Consultancy Purpose:

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) of Egypt is preparing to conduct the 2028 Population and Housing Census using a Combined Census Methodology (Base Register + Full Field Enumeration). This approach aligns with UN Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses (Revision 4). This approach combines administrative register data with field enumeration and can leverage both registers and field operations as it provides the opportunity to assess the accuracy and completeness of the available administrative data sources. In this design, administrative registers provide the population baseline and select core topics, while full field enumeration verifies data on the doorstep and collects characteristics unavailable in registers. Also, it will serve as a foundational milestone toward a fully register-based census model in future rounds.
The overall purpose of this assignment is to strengthen CAPMAS’s institutional and technical capacity to assess, clean, link, and utilize administrative registers for the 2028
Combined Census and the subsequent transition to register-based statistics. This technical assistance aims to establish the statistical infrastructure within CAPMAS required to
transform raw administrative files into high-quality statistical records, build an integrated secondary Statistical Population Register (SPR), and implement microdata confidentiality safeguards.

Scope of Work: 

Transitioning to a register-based census is especially challenging for populous countries like Egypt due to the volume of data that must be integrated. Additionally, some administrative registers are often decentralized across regional and local levels rather than centralized nationally, significantly increasing the number of data sources to process and further complicating the transition.
As part of census modernization, and as a strategic secondary consideration, integration of Mobile Phone Data for Population Statistics is another important consideration. Mobile phone data—specifically anonymized and aggregated Call Detail Records (CDRs) and positioning data—offers a high-coverage source for producing frequent, timely, and dynamic population statistics. Within the scope of this consultancy, mobile phone data will be evaluated at a conceptual and methodology-design level as a supplementary “signs of life” tool to validate register population counts, while primary execution remains focused on administrative registers.
While CAPMAS holds deep and long-standing expertise in traditional census operations and information management, a register-based statistical system requires additional statistical expertise, particularly in the linkage and matching of data in registers, record linkage, quality assessment and statistical control. To ensure international compliance and rigorous standards, this technical assistance is grounded in the United Nations Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses (Revision 4), the UNSD Handbook on Register-Based Population and Housing Censuses, and the UNECE Guidelines for Assessing the Quality of Administrative Sources for Use in Censuses.
The administrative records in Egypt are primarily managed by various ministries and register-holders, CAPMAS will build an internal, secondary Statistical Population Register
(SPR). This consultancy will enable CAPMAS technical teams to assess register readiness, execute administrative-to-statistical data transformations, build an integrated SPR backbone, and implement statistical data protection.

Objectives of the Assignment: 
1. Preconditions Assessment: Evaluate and benchmark Egypt’s register ecosystem against international preconditions for register-based and hybrid transitions, highlighting legal, technical, and institutional gaps.

2. Multi-Stage Data Quality Assessment: Train and enable CAPMAS to identify and evaluate administrative data sources across Source, Input, Process, and Output
quality stages.

3. Data Transformation and Matching: Establish specialized capacity in deterministic and probabilistic record linkage, de-duplication, conflict resolution, and "Signs of
Life" (SOL) activity filtering.

4. SPR Structural Construction: Formulate the architectural blueprint and operational workflow to link individuals, addresses, and enterprises into an integrated
secondary Statistical Population Register.
5. Data Governance & Safeguards: Establish statistical disclosure control, microdata security, and inter-institutional governance frameworks.

3. Comprehensive Scope of Work & Technical Modules
Module 1: Readiness and Preconditions for Register Transitions

This module establishes the foundational non-technical and institutional parameters required to secure a reliable, continuous, and lawful supply of administrative data.

• Legal Framework & Political Support: Review CAPMAS's legal authority under Law No. 35 of 1960 and relevant modern statistics acts to receive, process, merge, and store microdata from administrative owners strictly for statistical purposes, ensuring confidentiality. Also, a strong political commitment and formalized
  collaboration between administrative authorities and the national statistical office are essential for a successful transition to register-based statistics.
• Administrative Routines Assessment: Assess the current data collection routines, capacities and quality guidelines of partner agencies to ensure a continuous and
  dependable supply of high-quality data.
• Unified Identifier Evaluation: Assess the penetration, stability, and error rates of the14-digit National ID across external registers.
• Inter-Institutional Frameworks: Draft templates for Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), data sharing protocols, Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), and Service
  Level Agreements (SLAs) between the holders of administrative registers (Administrative Control, MoHP, MoSS, etc) and CAPMAS defining transmission frequencies, format standards, metadata sharing, and dispute resolution.
• Public Trust and Data Ethics: Establish transparency frameworks, data ethics assessments, and public communications regarding data anonymization and
  confidentiality.

Other relevant points to be considered:
• Data provision: Where appropriate, and with necessary safeguards in place, explore opportunities for collaboration with the private sector to access data that can support census operations. This might involve accessing through data-sharing agreements, private sector data such as mobile location data or utility usage records, which can
be valuable for understanding population mobility or identifying signs of life.

• Resolving Data Overlaps and Conflicts: A combined census often draws on multiple data sources that may contain overlapping or conflicting variables. In such cases, decision-makers must evaluate and select the most appropriate source to use. Furthermore, register-based data and field data frequently yield inconsistent results,
even for identical topics. To ensure coherence, weighting techniques can be applied to align the datasets, while field data can serve as a benchmark to evaluate the accuracy and coverage of register counts.

Module 2: The Four-Stage Register Quality Evaluation Framework

Capacity building must follow the UNECE/UNSD four-stage quality evaluation framework to systematically assess quality across the entire data journey. CAPMAS and the Expert will consider splitting the training into two phases, one on assessing the registers and two on developing the statistical population register:

1. Source-Level Quality: Evaluating legal basis, register keeper trust, metadata completeness, and data transfer logistics.
2. Input-Level Quality: Assessing raw microdata completeness, representation errors (under-coverage and over-coverage), measurement errors, and timestamp alignment.
3. Process-Level Quality: Measuring linkage accuracy (false positives vs. false negatives), imputation rates, and edit failure rates.
4. Output-Level Quality: Validating accuracy, relevance, coherence, and comparability with past census benchmarks.
    

Module 3: Administrative-to-Statistical Transformation & Linkage
 This module covers the core statistical algorithms and processing rules required to integrate disparate databases into a single coherent census database.

• Concept and Classification Harmonization: Mapping administrative concepts (e.g., registered address, formal employment) to UN census definitions (e.g., usual residence, labor force status).
• Deterministic and Probabilistic Record Linkage: Training on matching algorithms using common identifiers (PINs) as well as non-unique identifiers (name, sex, date
  of birth, geographic codes).
• De-duplication and Conflict Resolution Rules: Establishing decision-tree logic and priority rules (weighting recency, source reliability, and cross-register agreement)
  when handling contradictory entries across sources.
• Signs of Life (SOL) Methodology: Implementing SOL activity markers (e.g., active health visits, school enrolment, tax/pension contributions, utility activity) to filter out latent over-coverage (unreported emigrations/deaths) from the baseline population.
   

Module 4: Establishing the Statistical Population Register (SPR) and Base Registers
CAPMAS will be guided in designing the conceptual and database architecture of an internal, secondary Statistical Population Register that serves as the backbone for census operations.
• Architectural Blueprint: Designing the SPR architecture within CAPMAS, linking individual statistical IDs to base registers:
o Statistical Population Register (SPR): Serving as the national population spine.
o Building/Dwelling Register & Master Address File: Linking individual usual residence to physical coordinates (x, y) and structural units.
o Statistical Business Register (SBR): Linking working individuals to enterprise locations for workplace/industry statistics.

• Pre-filling Field Enumeration: Formulate pre-filling rules for the 2028 combined census field instruments. Train CAPMAS on how register-based data can be securely pre-filled onto tablets for doorstep verification and updating by field enumerators, managing the risk of enumerator bias.
• Triangulation and Benchmarking: Develop methods to triangulate administrative register counts, mobile phone estimates, and full field enumeration results to evaluate coverage and adjust statistical weights.
  Module 5: Microdata Protection, Anonymization & Confidentiality
  This module operates strict data protection protocols to prevent the disclosure of individual and institutional identities.
• Data Masking and Hashing: Implementing secure, automated one-way hashing algorithms to replace administrative National IDs with pseudonymous internal Statistical IDs.
• Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC): Applying SDC tools for small-area tabulations to preserve individual confidentiality.
• Five Safes Framework: Designing operational protocols around Safe Data, Safe Projects, Safe People, Safe Settings, and Safe Outputs.

Duration and Working Schedule: 

The consultancy will span a period of 12 weeks, structured into four sequential integrated phases:
➢ Phase 1: Inception and Baseline Gap Analysis: Audit current CAPMAS administrative data holdings, existing MoUs with line ministries, and current legal/technical readiness. Benchmark CAPMAS against UN/UNFPA preconditions and submit a gap analysis report. (Approx 10 days)

• Phase 2: Tailored Curriculum and Sandbox Development: Design training modules and build a synthetic/anonymized "sandbox" database reflecting typical Egyptian administrative data structures (e.g., civil status, education, supply cards) for hands- on technical labs.
• Phase 3: Capacity Building Workshop Delivery: Deliver a 12-day practical training program for 20–30 CAPMAS statisticians, database engineers, and census planners
  covering record linkage, SOL logic, and quality evaluation matrices. (Approx 12 days)
• Phase 4: Pilot SPR Construction and Operational Guidelines: Guide CAPMAS teams in constructing a prototype Statistical Population Register (SPR) using real
  test datasets. Co-draft Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for data quality assessment, transformation algorithms, and SDC for the 2028 census. (Approx 10
  days)

Place where services are to be delivered: 

Basically, within CAPMAS premises in Cairo, Egypt with visits to relevant key stakeholders as required and coordinated by CAPMAS

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered

1- Inception & Readiness Report : Comprehensive baseline gap analysis evaluating CAPMAS against UN/UNFPA register transition preconditions, legal mandates, PIN availability and inter-institutional agreements. End of Week 3

2- Training Package: Complete curriculum, technical lecture slides, R/Python/SQL scripts for record linkage/SOL, and a synthetic test dataset. End of Week 5

3- Training Delivery: Delivery of 12-day hands-on technical training for 20-30 designated CAPMAS technical personnel. End of Week 8

4- Prototype SPR Architecture & Codebase: Documented database schema and automated codebase for linking registers, applying multi-source conflict resolution rules, and executing 'Signs of Life' filtration. End of Week 11

5- Final Report & Operational SOPs: Final report summarizing outcomes, recommended MoU templates, Data Quality Assessment Matrices, and SDC Guidelines for the 2028 Hybrid Census. End of Week 12

Deliverables 1, 2, & 4: Submitted electronically in bilingual format (English and Arabic).
Deliverable 3: Training completion report containing attendance logs, participant evaluation forms, and pre- and post-workshop assessment scores.
Deliverable 5: Final report submitted electronically

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:

The consultant’s progress will be monitored continuously through a combination of bi- weekly progress meetings, deliverable-based milestone reviews, and formal quality sign- offs jointly conducted by UNFPA Egypt and CAPMAS.

Supervisory arrangements:

The Consultant will report directly to the UNFPA Egypt Population and Development Analyst and the designated CAPMAS representative.

Expected travel:

Local visits within Cairo/Giza for stakeholder consultations at relevant ministries (if required and coordinated by CAPMAS)

Qualifications and Experience: 

The assignment may be undertaken by an Individual Lead Senior International Consultant (supported by a National junior consultant) or a Specialized Consultancy Team the requisite skills and experience.

Education:  

Advanced university degree (master’s or Ph.D.) in Statistics, Demography, Data Science, Computer Science, or related quantitative field.

Knowledge and Experience: 

Minimum 12 years of professional experience in census design, official statistics, or administrative register integration into national statistical systems.
o Demonstrated track record in leading or advising National Statistical Offices through transitions from traditional to combined or register-based censuses methodologies.
o Familiarity with UN Statistics Division and UNECE census frameworks and UNFPA census training materials.

• Technical Skills: Advanced proficiency in record linkage (deterministic and probabilistic), database management (SQL), statistical computing (R, Python), and Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC) packages.
• Linguistic Capabilities: Fluency in both Arabic and English is required, as deliverables and training must be provided in both languages to accommodate CAPMAS requirements.

Languages: 

• Profeciency in English Language 
• Arabic knowledge is preferable 

Inputs / services to be provided by UNFPA or national partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:
 Provided by CAPMAS (National Partner):
• Data Access and Coordination: Facilitate secure access to required administrative test datasets, and inter-institutional coordination with external registry holders

• Premises and Infrastructure: Provide dedicated, secure office space, stable internet access, computing hardware/servers.
• Training Logistics: Secure computer lab training rooms for the Phase 3 workshops.
• Assign a Team: Designate a technical task force to work alongside the consultant throughout all phases.
• Administrative Facilitation: Secure site access permits, and coordination for stakeholder consultations as required.
  Provided by UNFPA Egypt:
• Contractual & Financial Oversight: Timely disbursement of consultancy fees based on approved deliverables.
• Technical Supervision: Periodic technical review, guidance, and quality assurance of deliverables via the Population and Development Analyst.
• Resource Materials: Facilitate access to specialized UN/UNFPA technical guidelines, course materials, and regional benchmark case studies.
  Relevant resources;
• Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 4
• Handbook on Registers-based Population and Housing Censuses
• Guidelines for Assessing the Quality of Administrative Sources for Use in Censuses
• Self-Assessment Tool on Readiness to Use Administrative Data for Census

Other relevant information or special conditions, if any:

Interested applicants are required to submit a brief proposal (maximum 5 pages) outlining their proposed methodological approach, data transformation strategy, and framework for conducting this capacity building assignment, consultancy rates, along with CV(s) and a cover letter. Final consultancy rates will be determined by UNFPA.