Result of Service
Outputs: The required outputs to be delivered by the consultant are the following The balanced new global database for GETSI 2 KSA The calibrated GETSI 2 KSA model. The package of required files to upload the model on GAMS-MIRO Technical document displaying the model’s major features and calibration process.
Expected duration
8 months
Duties and Responsibilities
Scope and Objectives: Decision-makers require advanced tools that provide real-time, data-driven insights to effectively design optimal economic policies. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) has been at the forefront of developing cutting-edge simulation tools to support Arab countries in aligning their trade policies with broader economic objectives and long-term national visions. One such tool is a user-friendly trade simulator that enables non-specialist trade experts and negotiators across the Arab region to utilize customized global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. At the request of the Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP) of Saudi Arabia, ESCWA developed the first version of the Global Economywide Trade Simulator Interface (GETSI) for the Kingdom. This version was built using GTAP 11 and additional national account data, with sectoral and geographic disaggregation tailored to the specifications provided by the MEP. The interface facilitates forward-looking analysis, particularly in evaluating the potential impacts of new trade agreements currently under negotiation by Saudi Arabia. Following a new request from the MEP, ESCWA is launching a project to develop a suite of interlinked trade simulators, including an updated and enhanced version of GETSI. This new version will incorporate the latest global datasets— GTAP 12 or 13—and updated global distributions of foreign direct investment (FDI) and migration by sector, skill level, origin, and destination. It will also include revised behavioral parameters and new baseline projections for the period 2026–2035. Activities and Tasks: The consultant is expected to undertake the following tasks: 1. Integrate the latest technological coefficients for Saudi’s economy into a revised GTAP database. 2. Generate a customized new GTAP database based on the adopted sectoral and geographical structure for GETSI 2 as decided by the Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP). 3. Calibrate the global CGE model using the new database (modified GTAP, new sectoral and geographical structure of FDI inflows and outflows, new migration module). 4. Build the most plausible baseline scenarios for Saudi Arabia and countries and regions individually considered for the period 2026–2035 using latest macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts. 5. Conduct robustness checks by adopting alternative values for key elasticities (trade, consumption, and production) and recalibrate the model to generate the most plausible simulator. 6. Prepare the new sim file and all required files for uploading the new model on GAMS-MIRO. 7. Provide all necessary files for deploying the updated model on the GAMS-MIRO platform. 8. Prepare the required technical documentation on the model’s features and calibration process. 9. If required, support capacity-building sessions to the MEP’s team on the following steps in building the model and its interface and on running simulations and analyzing their results.
Qualifications/special skills
A Master's degree in applied Economics is required. PHD is desirable. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. Minimum of 10 years of experience in developing and applying global dynamic CGE models using GAMS is required. Proven experience in working with GTAP database is required. Hands-on experience in calibrating and running global CGE models is required. Proficient in GAMS and its applications in global CGE modeling is required. Prior experience working with or advising government ministries or policy institutions, especially in the Gulf region or Saudi Arabia is desirable. Knowledge of MIRO interface design and best practices in user interaction for economic modeling tools is desirable.
Languages
English and French are the working languages of the United Nations secretariat and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA. For this position, Fluency in written and spoken Arabic is required. Knowledge of English is desirable. Notes: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.
Additional Information
Not available.
No Fee
THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.
