TERMS OF REFERENCE  (to be completed by Hiring Office)

Hiring Office:

FP/Supplies Unit, UNFPA ESARO

Purpose of contract:

Purpose of contract: The primary purpose of the consultancy commissioned by UNFPA ESARO is to conduct a qualitative validation and operational audit of 30 years of demographic data to uncover the underlying why and how of structural inequities in family planning access across the East and Southern Africa Region (ESAR). While quantitative metrics show a tripling of the modern contraceptive prevalence rate since 1990, these aggregate successes frequently mask profound disparities. By employing a granular, person-centred approach to humanize these statistical trends, the consultancy aims to surface the real-life narratives of invisible, high-risk populations and assess the impact of recent investments made since ICPD. Ultimately, this assignment seeks to bridge the gap between quantitative modelling and actionable policy, facilitating a strategic shift away from relying on national averages toward a sub-national model that prioritizes interventions and resources for those left furthest behind.

Background & Context: In the East and Southern Africa Region (ESAR), Modern Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (mCPR) has more than tripled over the last three decades (from 13.9% in 1990 to 43.4% in 2024), yet these aggregate successes frequently mask severe structural inequalities. Even when data on unequal access to contraceptives across countries and within countries may be available, there is a lack of detailed qualitative data to explain the underlying cause of the inequities in the statistical trends.  This consultancy is strategically designed to uncover the why and how the observed inequities occur. The assignment moves beyond national averages to validate data through a granular, person-centred lens, ensuring that interventions are transitioned toward a sub-national and background characteristics model that prioritizes those furthest behind.

The ESAR has undergone a demographic transformation in the last three decades. Preliminary analysis shows that, between 1990 and 2024, the mCPR escalated almost tripled, while unmet need declined by one third, from 35.4% to 22.7%. However, this progress is non-linear. The region faces a High-Inequality paradox in countries like Kenya and Namibia, where national success is fueled by affluent urban groups, leaving rural populations in conditions reminiscent of the 1990s^[1]. Conversely, the negative equity trap seen in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents an infrastructure failure, where equity is achieved only because access is universally low for both rich and poor. These disparities are most acute at the sub-national level, exemplified by the Simiyu-Lindi divide in Tanzania, where the Lindi region reports a world-class unmet need of 6.7% while Simiyu faces a crisis-level unmet need of 41.7%. Qualitative deep dives are essential to validate the institutional and behavioural context of these gaps.

The strategic intent of this consultancy is to humanize demographic trends and service access/utilization. It is not a simple information collection exercise, but a comprehensive operational audit designed to surface the narratives of invisible, high-risk populations. By synthesizing technical modelling with lived experiences, this exercise will help to bridge the gap between quantitative data and actionable policy informed by real-life experiences.

Primary Objectives:

• Validation: To conduct a technical review and validation of the findings of the 30-year secondary data analysis to ensure they reflect current institutional and field realities.
• Qualitative: Conduct qualitative studies (desk review of laws, policies and social norms; in-depth interviews; etc) to understand the barriers and facilitators of family planning use (eg: socioeconomic, demographic, policy, and political, etc).
• Triangulation: Capture specific narratives regarding barriers and facilitators to triangulate with the quantitative evidence.
• Attribution: Assess the impact of UNFPA investments in Family Planning programs in the region, including investments in enhancing service quality and community engagement. 

Scope of work:

(Description of services, activities, or outputs)

The Scope of this work is rooted in rigorous validation logic, updating available recent information, adding more layers of information, incorporating reports, conducting qualitative data collection and analysis, based on agreed concept notes, validation tools, and  DHS protocols to ensure high-fidelity reporting. The consultant will adapt a draft tool typically used for validation and gathering of additional information. The scope includes all countries in the Eastern and Southern Africa region. 

Specifically:

• Strategy & Evidence: Conduct all validation and in-depth interviews to evaluate national FP action plans for quantitative targets concerning sub-groups (Youth, Unmarried, Rural).
• Quality & Task-Shifting: Assess SOW alignment with WHO guidelines and the efficacy of Community Health Worker (CHW) models in reaching the Last Mile.
• Equity & Discrimination: Measure provider bias against unmarried women and adolescents through structured qualitative tools.
• Validation Methodology:
  • Independent analysis: Develop and use the latest available data (Reference year 2025); check if all are used in the analysis or discussions.
  • Narrative Validation: Cross-reference stories of program, policy, and country context, and reorganize in an implementation context. 

Duration and working schedule:

Three Months (50 days LOE) with a starting date of May 15, 2026. 

• Inception Report: Ten days after signing the contract   (Includes methodology, analytical framework, milestones, and data access plan). - 31 May, 2026.
• Draft Updated Report and: This includes track change of updated report, with additional references, datasets and also a presentation)   - 15 July, 2026
• Final Report Package: This includes the final report, PPTs, completed validation tool, all references, datasets, final presentation, and the publication plan- 15 August, 2026. 

Place where services are to be delivered:

The selected consultant will be required to provide weekly updates via email to monitor adherence to tight production schedules. Virtual meetings will be held when necessary.

Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.):

All deliverables (including reports, completed tools, PPTs, policy documents, and datasets) will be presented electronically according to the specific delivery dates outlined above.

The selected consultant will be expected to deliver all work electronically by 15 August, 2026.

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:

The selected consultant will be required to provide regular updates via email to monitor adherence to tight production schedules. The consultant must demonstrate the following:

• Proven expertise in the analysis of FP/demographic principles and policy dialogues. 
• Demonstrated experience in maternal, newborn, or reproductive health programmes, preferably focusing on family planning.
• Experience conducting policy and investment analyses grounded in the fiscal realities of Low- and Middle-Income Countries.
• Demonstrated experience working in LMICs, preferably in sub-Saharan Africa or the ESA region 
• Proven capacity to manage multi-country analytical work and coordinate with stakeholders.
• Ability to deliver high-quality analytical reports and policy outputs within agreed timelines.
• Previous collaboration with UNFPA, UN agencies, or development partners.

Supervisory arrangements: 

The selected consultant will work under the supervision of the hiring manager, Population Dynamics Adviser, and the Regional Family Planning Specialist.

Expected travel:

No travel is expected. All activities are virtual (data collection, consultation, desk review, validations, etc).

Required expertise, qualifications and competencies, including language requirements:

The ideal profile is a Master's in population studies, statistics, or with a public health/medical background and quantitative skills, with strong exposure in interpreting demographic trends and social determinants, who can translate complex modelling into family planning and supply chain programmatic shifts.

Requirements:

• Education: Master’s (10 years of experience) or PhD (7 years of experience) in Demography, Public Health, or Sociology.
• Technical Literacy: Proven analytical capacity to interpret and validate complex demographic models, specifically the proximate determinants of fertility and regression outputs.
• Sector Knowledge: Deep understanding of the ESAR context.
• Methodological Skill: Experience in using pictorial aids, visual illustrations, and structured validation narratives to minimize recall bias.
• Analytical Writing: Ability to translate disaggregated data into stories and recommendations for regional policy dialogue.

Detailed Deliverables:

• Coordinate with the country's focal point and a completed validation tool for each country.
• Additional data sources with an analysis of similar KPI.
• Revised report in track change and cleaned final version. 
• A comprehensive desk review of national laws, policies, strategic plans, investment cases, and key cultural/social norms affecting FP access and equity across the ESAR. Regional Compendium of Laws, Policies, and Key Social Norms related to family planning access, structured to highlight barriers and enablers in alignment with the quantitative findings.
• Conduct a virtual presentation of the final compendium and findings to key stakeholders and partners to support the formal publication plan.
• Dissemination strategy and plan detailing target audiences (e.g., policymakers, civil society, media) and proposed formats (e.g., policy brief, web story, media talking points) for the regional compendium and the qualitative assessment report.
• Submission: Electronic submission of the validated and completed Qualitative Assessment Questionnaire and a comprehensive qualitative narrative report.

Inputs/services to be provided by UNFPA or implementing partner (e.g support services, office space, equipment), if applicable:

UNFPA will provide electronic copies of the reports, all relevant background documents to help inform the proofreading processes, as well as guidance for clarification purposes.

• 20% upon submission and clearance of the Inception Report.
• 60% upon submission of the Draft Analytical Report and completed datasets.
• 20% upon submission and approval of the Final Report Package.

Remote assignment