The global demographic landscape is undergoing an era of unprecedented volatility, characterized by the diverging trajectories of population growth, aging, and mobility. In the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, these shifts are not merely statistical phenomena but represent foundational challenges to the sustainability of social contracts, economic competitiveness, and national resilience.   Turkmenistan, uniquely positioned within this regional context, currently navigates an intermediate stage of demographic transition, possessing a young and dynamic population structure that offers a time-bound window of opportunity—the demographic dividend.

Turkmenistan is an upper-middle-income country with a total population of approximately seven million and a median age of 30 years. According to the 2022 Census, 57% of the population is of working age, while 34.9% is younger than working age, resulting in a dependency ratio of 39.7%^[1]. This youthful structure, where 35% of the population is under the age of 18 and over 42% is under the age of 25, creates a powerful momentum for natural growth. While the country possesses a significant "demographic dividend" window, it also faces emerging shifts: fertility has been declining (total fertility rate ~2.6) and life expectancy is ~70 years. Projections indicate the working-age population will grow by ~1 million by 2050 (to ~5.2 million), while the elderly (65+) share will more than double (~15% of total).^[2] The population may peak around 9 million by mid-century. These trends pose both opportunities and challenges. For example, the youth NEET rate (ages 15–29 not in employment, education or training) is 14.7% (particularly among young women).^[3] Furthermore, the country navigates environmental challenges, with 80% of its land covered by the Karakum Desert and a high vulnerability to climate change, which acts as a "threat multiplier" for migration and rural livelihoods.

The Government of Turkmenistan (GoT) is committed to human capital development under the "National Program for Socio-Economic Development 2022–2052". To accelerate these goals, UNFPA is supporting the GoT in formulating a National Demographic Resilience Strategy aligned with the UNFPA Strategic Plan 2026–2029, which introduces "demographic resilience" as a core fourth outcome. UNFPA’s Regional Demographic Resilience programme supports countries in creating societies that are resilient to, and can thrive amid, unfolding demographic changes. The achievement of this overarching goal critically depends on the capacity of governments to anticipate, plan for and shape demographic futures so that they can mitigate potentially negative effects for individuals, societies, economies and the environment, and harness the opportunities that come with demographic change for people, prosperity and the planet.^[4] In this spirit, a comprehensive strategy is needed to translate demographic evidence into policies across sectors (health, education, social protection, labor, climate, etc.), ensuring Turkmenistan can maximize its demographic dividend. 

The UNFPA Country Programme for Turkmenistan (2026–2030), officially endorsed by the Government in 2025^[5], serves as the primary implementation framework for this initiative. Under Output 3 of the CPD, UNFPA is committed to strengthening future-fit national data systems and institutional capacities to guide human-centered policies. A cornerstone of this commitment is the operationalization of the Demographic Resilience pillar, which aims to ensure that population changes—including the youth bulge, urbanization, and the impacts of climate change—are addressed through rights-based, evidence-driven strategies that leave no one behind.

The overall objective is to support the Government of Turkmenistan in developing a National Demographic Resilience Strategy. Aligned with UNFPA’s Strategic Plan, the strategy will guide national policies and programs so they fully integrate demographic trends and population needs into economic and social planning through digital CRVS system, National Transfer Accounts and addressing the demographic dividends. The consultant will: (a) lead data analysis and stakeholder engagement; (b) draft the strategy document; and (c) build local capacity. The consultancy outputs will be finalized strategy documents (with an implementation roadmap) and a set of analytical reports, ready for government approval.

The consultancy will proceed in phases combining analytical and consultative work:

Phase 1: Inception - 4 days

• Desk review of background materials such as 2022 Census, MICS and other surveys data, national programmes and plans, UNFPA resources). 
• Review existing policies, strategies and institutions relevant to population, including national population or family planning policies, health and education strategies, youth employment programs, pension/elder care plans, climate adaptation strategies, and gender equality frameworks.
• Develop an Inception Report with the methodology, workplan, timelines, and outlines of the strategy document structure. Coordinate with UNFPA CO and government focal points to refine the approach.

Phase 2: Situation Analysis on demographic and socio-economic data - 6 days

• Analyze population structure by age, sex and region and produce population projections (short-, medium-, long-term) under different scenarios (e.g. varying fertility, mortality, migration). Highlight trends affecting youth, working-age and elderly populations.  
• Conduct a review and, where feasible, indicative analysis of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) to assess intergenerational resource flows and implications for demographic dividend policies.
• Assess gender and youth dimensions (e.g. education attainment by gender, NEET rates), internal and international migration patterns, urbanization trends, and climate-related population risks (e.g. water scarcity, heat stress)
• Examine how population trends intersect with sectors: health (maternal/child health, ageing), education (school enrollment, skills), labor (employment, labor force participation), social protection, and infrastructure. Identify emerging gaps (e.g. skills mismatch, urban housing needs).
• Produce a Situation Analysis Report summarizing key findings and a data annex to the strategy.

Phase 3: Stakeholder Mapping and Consultations- 4 days

• Map current governance/institutional arrangements (e.g. inter-ministerial committees, data agencies). Identify overlaps, gaps and coordination mechanisms.
• Develop a Stakeholder Engagement Plan. Identify key stakeholders (ministries, UN agencies, NGOs, private sector) and plan consultations. Engage with Government counterparts (e.g. State Statistics Committee, Ministries of Finance and Economy, Ministry of Health and Medical Industry, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and other relevant national organizations) and development partners (UNICEF, ILO, WHO, IOM, UNDP, ADB, etc.).

Phase 4: Draft Strategy Development - 12 days

• Synthesize the Draft Demographic Resilience Strategy, including:
  • Strategic Framework, vision, goals and objectives of the strategy, aligned with national priorities and UNFPA goals
  • Concrete policy options and programs grouped by themes (such as strengthening population data systems, incorporate demographic analysis into planning; investing in education and skills (including digital/green skills), family planning and reproductive health, social protection; adapting labor market policies (skills forecasting, lifelong learning), social protection schemes (for ageing, disability), and infrastructure (urban planning, health facilities) to demographic realities; raising awareness and public discourse on demographic trends, promoting rights-based approaches to family planning, gender equality, and age inclusion.
  • Incorporate NTA-based insights to inform policies on education, labor markets, and aging.
  • Implementation plan outlining actions, responsible agencies, and sequencing with specified short/mid/long-term steps. Emphasize capacity needs (statistics, planning units, etc.) and collaboration mechanisms.
  • Monitoring framework with key performance indicators (baselines/targets) for tracking progress (e.g. population data updates, youth employment rate, old-age support coverage).

Phase 5: Validation and Finalization - 6 days

• Convene a capacity building and validation 3-day workshop for government representatives and stakeholders to build national capacities on demographic analysis and projections, interpreting age pyramids and dependency ratios; integrating demographic data in sector strategies (health, education, labor); applying gender analysis to demographic data, planning youth employment and education; understanding migration or health impacts of climate change on population; introduction to NTA methodology and policy applications. The workshop should include practical exercises. By the end of the workshop, national counterparts should be able to: (a) update basic demographic projections; (b) interpret key demographic indicators; (c) understand how demographic trends affect sector policies.
• Present the draft strategy for feedback. 
• Incorporate comments and finalize the strategy document and submit the Final National Demographic Resilience Strategy (including executive summary and implementation annex).

The consultant will coordinate closely with UNFPA Turkmenistan CO and the designated government counterpart(s). Regular progress updates (e.g. weekly brief emails or calls) should be provided. The consultant should ensure the integration of cross-cutting issues (gender, youth, aging, migration, climate) in all analyses and in the strategy recommendations. 

Deliverable 1. Methodology, detailed workplan and timeline, annotated outline of strategy document, list of data sources and stakeholders. (May 25th, 2026)

Deliverable 2. Comprehensive report (with charts/tables) on demographic trends, projections, and cross-sectoral context, as well as existing policies/programs and institutional framework relevant to population (June 15th, 2026).

Deliverable 3. Summary of consultation findings (key points from meetings/workshops) and finalized stakeholder list (June 30th, 2026).

Deliverable 4. A workshop for government stakeholders delivered with knowlegde^[6] (July 15th, 2026)^[7].

Deliverable 5. First draft of the Demographic Resilience Strategy, including strategic framework and implementation plan (August 20th, 2026).

Deliverable 6. Final National Demographic Resilience Strategy (with executive summary, full strategy, annexes) (September 30th, 2026).

Deliverable 7. Final consultancy report documenting activities, lessons learned, recommendations and follow up actions (October 15th, 2026).

The UNFPA Turkmenistan Head of Office and Programme Coordination Associate will monitor the International Consultant’s work through reviewing submitted materials. The consultant will weekly provide an update on progress by email or ad-hoc, on challenges encountered and support needed. 

Ethical Considerations

UNFPA requires its consultants to adhere to ethical principles and standards when doing research. The selected consultant should clearly identify any potential ethical issues and approaches, as well as the processes for ethical review in the inception report.

National Ownership

The involvement of appropriate national partners will be a critical condition for the development of all the consultancy outcome materials in ensuring stakeholder ownership and its subsequent utilisation.

• Advanced university degree in Demography, Statistics, Economics, Public Policy, Sociology or related field.
• A minimum of 7 years of professional experience in conducting population and/or policy-oriented research and analysis on human capital development, demographic dividends, education systems reform, and labor market policy.
• Demonstrated experience in:
  • Proven track record of developing national or regional population strategies, plans or policy frameworks. Ability to synthesize data and stakeholder input into actionable strategy documents.
  • Understanding of how population issues intersect with health, education, labor, social protection, and environment sectors. 
  • In-depth knowledge of the interlinkages between demographic trends, education quality, skills development, and social protection systems.
  • Experience integrating gender equality and youth empowerment into demographic work
• Prior working experience with UN agencies (especially UNFPA or UNDP) or international development partners is highly desirable. Experience in Central Asia or a similar context (CIS) is an asset.
• Strong analytical, writing and facilitation skills. Ability to work independently and engage diverse stakeholders.
• Fluency in English is required. Proficiency in Russian is highly desirable.

The consultancy fee will be calculated based on the P-4 level of the of the UN Salary Scale for Professional and higher categories effective 1 January 2026 and will be paid in a lump sum upon successful completion of deliverables.

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Reasonable accommodation may be provided to applicants with disabilities upon request, to support their participation in the recruitment process. Persons with disabilities, and individuals of other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity.