1. Introduction
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person’s potential is fulfilled. The strategic goal of UNFPA is to “achieve universal access to reproductive health, and accelerate progress on the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). With this call to action, UNFPA contributes directly to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, in line with the Decade of Action to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals”. (https://www.unfpa.org/strategic-plan-2022).
In pursuit of this goal, UNFPA works towards three transformative and people-centered results: (i) end preventable maternal deaths; (ii) end unmet need for family planning; and (iii) end gender-based violence (GBV) and all harmful practices, including female genital mutilation and child, early and forced marriage. These transformative results contribute to the achievement of all the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but directly contribute to the following: (a) ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at ages (Goal 3); (b) achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls (Goal 5); (c) reduce inequality within and among countries (Goal 10); take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (Goal 13); promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels (Goal 16); and strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development (Goal 17). In line with the vision of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, UNFPA seeks to ensure increasing focus on “leaving no one behind”, and emphasizing “reaching those furthest behind first”.
UNFPA has been operating in Egypt since 1972. The support that the UNFPA Egypt Country Office (CO) provides to the Government of Egypt under the framework of the 11th Country Programme (CP) (2023-2027) builds on national development needs and priorities articulated in:
● Egypt’s Vision 2030;
● National Structural Reform Programme (Phase II);
● Government Action Programme, 2023-2027;
● National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024;
● National Population Strategy, 2015-2030;
● Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative;
● National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030;
● Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026;
● United Nations Common Country Analysis/Assessment (CCA), 2021;
● United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF), 2023-2027.

The 2024 UNFPA Evaluation Policy encourages CO to carry out CPEs every programme cycle, and as a minimum every two cycles.(https://www.unfpa.org/admin-resource/unfpa-evaluation-policy-2024). The country programme evaluation (CPE) will provide an independent assessment of the performance of the UNFPA 11th country programme(2023-2027) in Egypt, and offer an analysis of various facilitating and constraining factors influencing programme delivery and the achievement of intended results. The CPE will also draw conclusions and provide a set of actionable recommendations for the next programme cycle.
The evaluation will be implemented in line with the UNFPA Evaluation Handbook. The Handbook provides practical guidance for managing and conducting CPEs to ensure the production of quality evaluations in line with the United Nations Evaluation Group (UNEG) norms and standards and international good practice for evaluation. (UNEG, Norms and Standards for Evaluation (2016). The document is available at https://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/1914).  It offers step-by-step guidance to prepare methodologically robust evaluations and sets out the roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders at all stages of the evaluation process. The Handbook includes links to a number of tools, resources and templates that provide practical guidance on specific activities and tasks that the evaluators and the CPE manager perform during the different evaluation phases. The evaluators, the CPE manager, CO staff and other engaged stakeholders are required to follow the full guidance of the Handbook throughout the evaluation process.
The main audience and primary intended users of the evaluation are: (i) The UNFPA Egypt CO; (ii) the Government of Egypt; (iii) implementing partners of the UNFPA Egypt CO; (iv) rights-holders involved in UNFPA interventions and the organizations that represent them (in particular women, adolescents and youth); (v) the United Nations Country Team (UNCT); (vi) Arab States Regional Office (ASRO); and (vii) donors. The evaluation results will also be of interest to a wider group of stakeholders, including: (i) UNFPA headquarters divisions, branches and offices; (ii) the UNFPA Executive Board; (iii) academia; and (iv) local civil society organizations and international NGOs. The evaluation results will be disseminated as appropriate, using traditional and digital channels of communication.
The evaluation will be managed by the CPE manager within the UNFPA Egypt CO in close consultation with the Government of Egypt (GoE) that coordinates the country programme, with guidance and support from the regional monitoring and evaluation (M&E) adviser at the ASRO, and in consultation with the evaluation reference group (ERG) throughout the evaluation process. A team of independent external evaluators will conduct the evaluation and prepare an evaluation report in conformity with these terms of reference and the detailed guidance in the Handbook.
 

2. Country Context
Egypt is a lower middle income country, with a total land area of 1.01 million square kilometres, continues to experience demographic pressures that shape its development trajectory and the scope of UNFPA’s support. Although the population has reached approximately 108 million people according to recent national estimates, the population remains heavily concentrated within 8 percent of the territory, primarily along the Nile Valley and Delta. Data from the UNFPA World Population Dashboard and the UNDP Human Development Database confirm the persistence of high population density in these areas and the sustained annual population growth of around 2 million people per year.
Over the last fifteen years, population growth has been driven in part by fluctuating fertility trends: the total fertility rate declined to 3.0 children per woman in 2008, rose to 3.5 in 2014, and has since declined to approximately 2.85, supported by national family-planning initiatives and policies for women’s empowerment. Fertility in rural Upper Egypt remains considerably higher, accounting for 41 percent of births while representing roughly one quarter of the population, and adolescent girls in rural areas tend to marry earlier and experience higher levels of early childbearing.
The demographic structure of the country, with approximately 61 percent of the population below age 29, presents a demographic dividend opportunity that remains only partially realized. According to the World Bank Development Indicators and the United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index (HDI), Egypt is classified within the high human development category, yet persistent socioeconomic disparities continue to constrain inclusive growth. Multidimensional poverty is estimated to affect approximately 30 million people, with poverty rates reaching up to 60 percent in rural Upper Egypt. While Egypt’s income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, reflects moderate levels compared to peer countries, geographic and socioeconomic disparities remain pronounced, particularly between urban and rural areas.
The flagship Presidential initiatives – Haya Karima, a national poverty reduction initiative targeting around 5,000 of the poorest villages; and the National Project for Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024, which provides a holistic response to transform the demographic challenge into an opportunity – have illustrated the country’s investments in human capital development and in realizing the rights of those left furthest behind. Furthermore, the First Lady is championing girls’ empowerment as an integral part of development programmes. Egypt has embarked on the second phase of the National Structural Reform Programme, 2021-2024, focused on diversifying the productive structure of the economy. In parallel, the Government has taken progressive steps toward introducing legislative reforms, including on combating sexual harassment and female genital mutilation (FGM), and adopting important strategies on human rights, women’s empowerment, FGM, youth and adolescents and climate.
Egypt benefits from a relatively strong national statistical system, led by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), which has demonstrated solid institutional and technical capacity to generate high-quality, nationally representative, and disaggregated data. Through large-scale household surveys and administrative data systems—such as the Egyptian Family Health Survey 2021—CAPMAS provides reliable evidence of disaggregated data.
Despite progress toward the UNFPA transformative results, significant gaps persist. Egypt’s maternal mortality ratio (MMR) declined from 174 per 100,000 live births in 1992 to 54 in 2010 to 42.8 in 2019, but increased to an estimated 49 in 2020 due to COVID-19-related service disruptions. Moreover, the maternal mortality ratio (per 100 000 live births) has improved by decrease to 17 in 2023. Regional inequities persist, with the highest MMR levels recorded in North Sinai and Matrouh.
As per the Egyptian Family Health Survey 2021, the national contraceptive prevalence rate is 66.4 percent and the national rate of unmet need for family planning services is 13.8 percent. Of concern is the contraceptive prevalence rate among younger age groups, which is significantly lower (39 percent for married women aged 15-19 years and 52.3 percent for those aged 20-24 years) as per the Egyptian Family Health Survey 2021. Spacing between pregnancies is less than two years among 69 percent of married women aged 15-19 years and 26 percent for those aged 20-24. Disparities in the maternal mortality rate and unmet need for family planning between rural and urban governorates, and among different age groups, suggest that there are gaps in quality of care, as well as deeply rooted gender and social norms that disempower rural and younger women; these need to be addressed. Therefore, younger age groups fall among the most at risk of unwanted pregnancies, repeated pregnancies with minimal spacing, leading to increased maternal mortality and morbidity.
Private spending on health care represents about 71 percent of the total current health care spending in Egypt, compared to the global average of 41 percent. Within the public sector, there were only 1.2 doctors and 2.2 nurses per 1,000 citizens in 2019, in addition to inadequate geographic distribution of health service providers. This highlights the importance of the Government prioritizing the 2018 roll-out of universal health coverage and enhancing national investments in health care to improve citizens’ access to affordable health care services. Furthermore, there is a need to address health system gaps to ensure adequate local-level coverage, effective monitoring and accountability, and adherence to standard operating procedures and ethical codes to end malpractice that affects the health and well-being of women and girls – for example, 52 percent of deliveries are caesarean (C-sections) while FGM medicalization is as high as 79 percent.
Approximately 7.88 million women face some form of violence every year, according to the Egypt Economic Cost of Gender-based Violence Survey (2015), while less than 1 percent report such incidents and seek support services. According to the Egyptian Family Health Survey 2021, the percentage of girls aged 15-17 years who have undergone FGM was reduced to approximately 36.8 percent compared to 61 percent in 2014; and around 11 percent of girls aged 15-19 years are either currently married or were married before the age of 18. In addition, 46 percent of married women were subjected to spousal violence in their lifetime. These forms of GBV against women and girls lead to disempowerment, limited access to human capital opportunities, agency and decision-making power. All of the above is further amplified among urban refugees and migrants as their socioeconomic conditions place them more at risk of gender-based violence against women and girls and sexual harassment.
 

3. UNFPA Country Programme
UNFPA has been working with the Government of Egypt since 1972 towards enhancing reproductive health (RH), advancing gender equality, realizing rights and choices for young people, and strengthening the generation and use of population data for development. UNFPA is currently implementing the 11th country programme in Egypt.
The 11th country programme (2023-2027) is aligned with Egypt’s Vision 2030; National Structural Reform Programme (Phase II); Government Action Programme, 2023-2027; National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024; National Population Strategy, 2015-2030; Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative; National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030; Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026; United Nations CCA, 2021; and UNSDCF, 2023-2027. In 2021, the UNFPA Egypt CO undertook the process of aligning the 11th country programme to the UNFPA Strategic Plan 2022-2025. It was developed in consultation with the Government and civil society.
The UNFPA Egypt CO delivers its country programme through the following modes of engagement: (i) advocacy and policy dialogue, (ii) capacity development, (iii) knowledge management, (iv) partnerships and coordination, and (v) service delivery. The country programme (2023-2027) contributes to the following national priorities, UNSDCF outcomes and UNFPA Strategic Plan 2022-2025 outcomes;
National Priorities:
● Egypt’s Vision 2030;
● National Structural Reform Programme (Phase II);
● Government Action Programme, 2023-2027;
● National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024;
● National Population Strategy, 2015-2030;
● Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative;
● National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030;
● Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026;
UNSDCF Outcomes:
1. By 2027, strengthened human capital through equal access to quality services, social protection and social justice ensured for all people.
2. By 2027, enhanced people-centred inclusive sustainable and green economic development driven by industrialization, productivity growth, decent jobs, digitalization and integrating the informal economy.
4. By 2027, people have improved, safe and equal access to information, protection, justice and a peaceful and inclusive society through transparent, accountable, participatory, effective and efficient governance based on the rule of law and international norms and standards.
5. By 2027, women and girls realize their rights in the social, health and livelihood spheres, as laid out in the Egyptian constitution, and their voice and leadership are guaranteed in a society free of all forms of discrimination and violence against women and girls.
UNFPA Strategic Plan 2022-2025 Outcomes:
1. By 2025, the reduction in the unmet need for family planning has accelerated.
2. By 2025, the reduction of preventable maternal deaths has accelerated.
3. By 2025, the reduction in gender-based violence and harmful practices has accelerated.
The UNFPA Egypt 11th country programme (2023-2027) has five thematic areas of programming with four interconnected outputs: (i) policy and accountability; (ii) quality of care and services; (iii) gender and social norms; (iv) population change and data; and (v) adolescents and youth]. All outputs contribute to the achievement of the Strategic Plan 2022-2025 outcomes, UNSDCF outcomes and national priorities; they have a multidimensional, ‘many-to-many’ relationship with these outcomes.
Output 1: [Adolescents and youth]
By 2027, youth’s, in particular girls’, agency and human capital are strengthened to enable them to make informed choices and realize their full potential.
This has been delivered through: (a) leading an advocacy campaign promoting Noura as a central figure in the girls’ empowerment national programme championed by the First Lady to enhance investments in adolescent girls; (b) building social, health and economic assets of adolescent girls and young women in vulnerable situations through the Girls Assets Framework intensive programme; (c) integrating age-appropriate knowledge, attitudes and practices about maternal health, RH and family planning, gender-based violence against women and girls and harmful practices into economic empowerment programmes to develop a comprehensive approach to youth empowerment, in partnership with Government and other United Nations entities; (d) building youth’s skills, knowledge, capacities and capabilities with government entities, youth-led organizations, networks and local civil society organizations; (e) operationalizing innovation frameworks that capitalize on social entrepreneurship that foster locally driven solutions to enhance population characteristics through incubators and accelerators, and facilitating participation of youth in decision-making; (f) advancing Menstrual Hygiene Education; and (g) promoting inclusion and empowerment of youth with disabilities.
Output 2: [Gender and social norms]
By 2027, capabilities and capacities of actors and institutions are strengthened to address gender equality and expand a zero-tolerance environment towards all forms of gender-based violence against women and girls
This has been delivered through: (a) institutionalizing and expanding the capacities and availability of local civil society organizations and community-based organizations (CBOs) and networks to empower youth as agents for the achievement of sustainable development, provide women-friendly and girl-friendly safe spaces and foster social cohesion; (b) expanding engagement with religious and community leaders, media, local community networks, the private sector and service providers to promote gender equality; (c) conducting men and boys engagement programmes to strengthen their roles as positive change agents for gender equality; (d) strengthening knowledge and shifting attitudes of community members through diverse interactive modes of engagement, including sports and edutainment; (e) increasing integration of age-appropriate population education within formal and non-formal education and scaling up of premarital education for couples; (g) expanding multimedia and behavioural change campaigns; (h) expanding refugee support through Women and Girls Safe Spaces; (i) sustaining and expanding safe spaces and economic empowerment units for girls and GBV survivors; and (j) supporting high-level policy dialogues advancing national policies and practices to eliminate harmful practices, promote gender equality, and enhance the rights and well-being of women and girls.
Output 3: [Quality of care and services]
By 2027, national systems, including local institutions, capacities are strengthened to provide quality, comprehensive and inclusive reproductive health services and information, as well as services addressing gender-based violence against women and girls and harmful practices.
This has been delivered through: (a) building the capacities of service providers (public, private, civil society organizations), at national and local levels, for enhanced counselling services, coordination and referral to existing maternal health, RH, family planning, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices services, while addressing regional disparities and the needs of refugees and people with disabilities; (b) strengthening ethical and legal approaches by building capacities of health-care service providers to reduce malpractices, including FGM medicalization and unjustified C-sections; (c) improving human, technical and institutional capacity of the family planning national supply chain; (d) supporting the digitalization of learning modules to expand the pool of capacitated service providers; (e) strengthening and expanding adolescents and youth-friendly health-care services; (f) improving locally provided specialized and coordinated protection and response services on GBV against women and girls and harmful practices, including referral pathways between them; (g) supporting the adaptation and roll-out of successful models for family rehabilitation and reintegration programmes targeting domestic violence and child marriage survivors; (h) enhancing community demand for services through knowledge-building programmes or national and local campaigns; (i) expanding and strengthening GBV medical response through Safe Women Clinics; (j) institutionalizing GBV prevention and response within universities; (k) advancing regional efforts on Technology Facilitated (TF) – GBV; (l) strengthening maternal health through Data-Driven Safe motherhood Committees; (m) strengthened institutional capacity through South-South and Triangular Cooperation (SSTC); and (n) expanding RH services for migrants and refugees.
Output 4: [Policy and accountability] [Population change and data]
Institutions, including local institutions, are strengthened through better interministerial coordination, improved monitoring and evaluation systems, digital transformation, enhanced statistical capacities allowing for evidence-based policymaking and implementation, and through implementation of SDG-driven financing mechanisms
This has been delivered through: (a) advocating for the three transformative results and developing investment cases, including for adolescent girls, aimed at increasing public investment and promoting public-private, innovative and blended financing and partnerships; (b) supporting the formulation or development of implementation frameworks for relevant national strategies, programmes, plans and emergency response mechanisms; (c) advocating for efforts to address legislative gaps and supporting relevant ministries in developing and implementing related policies and measures tackling GBV against women and girls, harmful practices, RH and maternal health medical malpractices, including supporting the Government in developing standard operating procedures and implementation frameworks for the ‘one-stop shop’ for survivors of GBV against women and girls; (d) supporting the Government's engagement with international and regional human rights mechanisms, including by advocating for the implementation of accepted recommendations on RH, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices from the Universal Periodic Review process and treaty bodies; (e) advocating for the expansion and strengthening of multisectoral coordination to address GBV against women and girls and harmful practices and strengthen accountability for quality of care, services and commodities for RH and family planning, maternal health and GBV against women and girls; (f) supporting strengthened age and sex-
disaggregated data collection at service delivery points and registries, including the digital transformation of national systems/tools to capture changing economic, environmental and population trends (including population aging); (g) supporting national research institutes and academia in producing quantitative and qualitative data and conducting household-level surveys, analysis and research (using the latest census) on maternal health, RH and family planning, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices; (h) enhancing local governance and accountability by strengthening capacities in data management for SDG localization and voluntary local reviews and supporting the development and operationalization of the Demographic Observatory – the monitoring and evaluation system for the National Project for Development of the Egyptian Family – to rapidly assess changing population trends; (i) strengthening national policies through evidence-based papers supporting action on FGM, GBV, RH, and population dynamics; and (j) strengthening UN coordination and technical engagement to advance Human Development (HD) under the Bedaya Initiative.
The UNFPA Egypt CO also engages in activities of the UNCT, with the objective to ensure inter-agency coordination and the efficient and effective delivery of tangible results in support of the national development agenda and the SDGs.
The central tenet of the CPE is the country programme theory of change and the analysis of its logic and internal coherence. The theory of change describes how and why the set of activities planned under the country programme are expected to contribute to a sequence of results that culminates in the strategic goal of UNFPA is presented in Annex A. The theory of change will be an essential building block of the evaluation methodology. The country programme theory of change explains how the activities undertaken contribute to a chain of results that lead to the intended or observed outcomes. At the design phase, the evaluators will perform an in-depth analysis of the country programme theory of change and its intervention logic. This will help them refine the evaluation questions (see preliminary questions in section 5.2), identify key indicators for the evaluation, plan data collection (and identify potential gaps in available data), and provide a structure for data collection, analysis and reporting. The evaluators’ review of the theory of change (its validity and comprehensiveness) is also crucial with a view to informing the preparation of the next country programme’s theory of change.
The UNFPA Egypt 11th country programme (2023-2027) is based on the following results framework presented below:

Egypt UNFPA 11th Country Programme (2023-2027) Results Framework
National Priority (s): Egypt’s Vision 2030; National Structural Reform Programme (phase II); Government Action Programme, 2023-2027; National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024; National Population Strategy, 2015-2030; Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative; National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030; Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026. National Priority (s): Egypt’s Vision 2030; National Structural Reform Programme (phase II); Government Action Programme, 2023-2027; National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024; National Population Strategy, 2015-2030; Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative; National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030; Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026. UNSDCF Outcome (s): 1. By 2027, strengthened human capital through equal access to quality services, social protection and social justice ensured for all people. 2. By 2027, enhanced people-centred inclusive sustainable and green economic development driven by industrialization, productivity growth, decent jobs, digitalization and integrating the informal economy. 5. By 2027, women and girls realize their rights in the social, health and livelihood spheres, as laid out in the Egyptian constitution, and their voice and leadership are guaranteed in a society free of all forms of discrimination and violence against women and girls. UNSDCF Outcome (s): 1. By 2027, strengthened human capital through equal access to quality services, social protection and social justice ensured for all people; 5. By 2027, women and girls realise their rights in the social, health and livelihood spheres, as laid out in the Egyptian constitution, and their voice and leadership are guaranteed in a society free of all forms of discrimination and violence against women and girls. Related UNFPA Strategic Plan Outcome(s): 1: By 2025, the reduction in the unmet need for family planning has accelerated; 2: By 2025, the reduction of preventable maternal deaths has accelerated; 3: By 2025, the reduction in gender-based violence and harmful practices has accelerated Related UNFPA Strategic Plan Outcome(s): 1: By 2025, the reduction in the unmet need for family planning has accelerated; 2: By 2025, the reduction of preventable maternal deaths has accelerated; 3: By 2025, the reduction in gender-based violence and harmful practices has accelerated UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Output: 1: By 2027, youth’s, in particular girls’, agency and human capital are strengthened to enable them to make informed choices and realize their full potential. UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Output: 2: By 2027, capabilities and capacities of actors and institutions are strengthened to address gender equality and expand a zero-tolerance environment towards all forms of gender-based violence against women and girls. UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Intervention Areas: (a) leading an advocacy campaign promoting Noura as a central figure in the girls’ empowerment national programme championed by the First Lady to enhance investments in adolescent girls; (b) building social, health and economic assets of adolescent girls and young women in vulnerable situations through the Girls Assets Framework intensive programme; (c) integrating age-appropriate knowledge, attitudes and practices about maternal health, RH and family planning, gender-based violence against women and girls and harmful practices into economic empowerment UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Intervention Areas: (a) institutionalizing and expanding the capacities and availability of local civil society organizations and community-based organizations (CBOs) and networks to empower youth as agents for the achievement of sustainable development, provide women-friendly and girl-friendly safe spaces and foster social cohesion; (b) expanding engagement with religious and community leaders, media, local community networks, the private sector and service providers to promote gender equality; (c) conducting men and boys engagement programmes to strengthen their roles as programmes to develop a comprehensive approach to youth empowerment, in partnership with Government and other United Nations entities; (d) building youth’s skills, knowledge, capacities and capabilities with government entities, youth-led organizations, networks and local civil society organizations; (e) operationalizing innovation frameworks that capitalize on social entrepreneurship that foster locally driven solutions to enhance population characteristics through incubators and accelerators, and facilitating participation of youth in decision-making; (f) advancing Menstrual Hygiene Education; and (g) promoting inclusion and empowerment of youth with disabilities. positive change agents for gender equality; (d) strengthening knowledge and shifting attitudes of community members through diverse interactive modes of engagement, including sports and edutainment; (e) increasing integration of age-appropriate population education within formal and non-formal education and scaling up of premarital education for couples; (g) expanding multimedia and behavioural change campaigns; (h) expanding refugee support through Women and Girls Safe Spaces; (i) sustaining and expanding safe spaces and economic empowerment units for girls and GBV survivors; and (j) supporting high-level policy dialogues advancing national policies and practices to eliminate harmful practices, promote gender equality, and enhance the rights and well-being of women and girls. National Priority (s): Egypt’s Vision 2030; National Structural Reform Programme (phase II); Government Action Programme, 2023-2027; National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024; National Population Strategy, 2015-2030; Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative; National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030; Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026. National Priority (s): Egypt’s Vision 2030; National Structural Reform Programme (phase II); Government Action Programme, 2023-2027; National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family, 2022-2024; National Population Strategy, 2015-2030; Decent Life/Haya Karima Presidential Initiative; National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030; Egyptian National Youth Strategy, 2022-2026. UNSDCF Outcome (s): 1. By 2027, strengthened human capital through equal access to quality services, social protection and social justice ensured for all people; 5. By 2027, women and girls realise their rights in the social, health and livelihood spheres, as laid out in the Egyptian constitution, and their voice and leadership are guaranteed in a society free of all forms of discrimination and violence against women and girls. UNSDCF Outcome (s): 4. By 2027, people have improved, safe and equal access to information, protection, justice and a peaceful and inclusive society through transparent, accountable, participatory, effective and efficient governance based on the rule of law and international norms and standards. Related UNFPA Strategic Plan Outcome(s): 1: By 2025, the reduction in the unmet need for family planning has accelerated; 2: By 2025, the reduction of preventable maternal deaths has accelerated; 3: By 2025, the reduction in gender-based violence and harmful practices has accelerated Related UNFPA Strategic Plan Outcome(s): 1: By 2025, the reduction in the unmet need for family planning has accelerated; 2: By 2025, the reduction of preventable maternal deaths has accelerated; 3: By 2025, the reduction in gender-based violence and harmful practices has accelerated UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Output: 3: By 2027, national systems, including local institutions, capacities are strengthened to provide quality, comprehensive and inclusive reproductive health services and information, as well as services addressing gender-based violence against women and girls and harmful practices. UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Output: 4: Institutions, including local institutions, are strengthened through better interministerial coordination, improved monitoring and evaluation systems, digital transformation, enhanced statistical capacities allowing for evidence-based policymaking and implementation, and through implementation of SDG-driven financing mechanisms.
UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Intervention Areas: (a) building the capacities of service providers (public, private, civil society organizations), at national and local levels, for enhanced counselling services, coordination and referral to existing maternal health, RH, family planning, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices services, while addressing regional disparities and the needs of refugees and people with disabilities; (b) strengthening ethical and legal approaches by building capacities of health-care service providers to reduce malpractices, including FGM medicalization and unjustified C-sections; (c) improving human, technical and institutional capacity of the family planning national supply chain; (d) supporting the digitalization of learning modules to expand the pool of capacitated service providers; (e) strengthening and expanding adolescents and youth-friendly health-care services; (f) improving locally provided specialized and coordinated protection and response services on GBV against women and girls and harmful practices, including referral pathways between them; (g) supporting the adaptation and roll-out of successful models for family rehabilitation and reintegration programmes targeting domestic violence and child marriage survivors; (h) enhancing community demand for services through knowledge-building programmes or national and local campaigns; (i) expanding and strengthening GBV medical response through Safe Women Clinics; (j) institutionalizing GBV prevention and response within universities; (k) advancing regional efforts on Technology Facilitated (TF) – GBV; (l) strengthening maternal health through Data-Driven Safe motherhood Committees; (m) strengthened institutional capacity through SSTC; and (n) expanding RH services for migrants and refugees. UNFPA Egypt 11th Country Programme Intervention Areas: (a) advocating for the three transformative results and developing investment cases, including for adolescent girls, aimed at increasing public investment and promoting public-private, innovative and blended financing and partnerships; (b) supporting the formulation or development of implementation frameworks for relevant national strategies, programmes, plans and emergency response mechanisms; (c) advocating for efforts to address legislative gaps and supporting relevant ministries in developing and implementing related policies and measures tackling GBV against women and girls, harmful practices, RH and maternal health medical malpractices, including supporting the Government in developing standard operating procedures and implementation frameworks for the ‘one-stop shop’ for survivors of GBV against women and girls; (d) supporting the Government's engagement with international and regional human rights mechanisms, including by advocating for the implementation of accepted recommendations on RH, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices from the Universal Periodic Review process and treaty bodies; (e) advocating for the expansion and strengthening of multisectoral coordination to address GBV against women and girls and harmful practices and strengthen accountability for quality of care, services and commodities for RH and family planning, maternal health and GBV against women and girls; (f) supporting strengthened age and sex-disaggregated data collection at service delivery points and registries, including the digital transformation of national systems/tools to capture changing economic, environmental and population trends (including population aging); (g) supporting national research institutes and academia in producing quantitative and qualitative data and conducting household-level surveys, analysis and research (using the latest census) on maternal health, RH and family planning, GBV against women and girls and harmful practices; (h) enhancing local governance and accountability by strengthening capacities in data management for SDG localization and voluntary local reviews and supporting the development and operationalization of the Demographic Observatory – the monitoring and evaluation system for the National Project for Development of the Egyptian Family – to rapidly assess changing population trends; (i) strengthening national policies through evidence-based papers supporting action on FGM, GBV, RH, and population dynamics; and (j) strengthening UN coordination and technical engagement to advance HD under the Bedaya Initiative.
Nota Bene: “Country Programme Intervention Areas” boxes: In bold: Activities that were not initially planned, yet were implemented; in italics: Activities that were initially planned but were not implemented.

(4) Evaluation Purpose, Objectives and Scope
4.1. Purpose
The CPE will serve the following four main purposes, as outlined in the 2024 UNFPA Evaluation Policy: (i) enhance oversight and accountability to stakeholders by assessing progress towards results and resource use; (ii) support evidence-based decision-making to inform development, humanitarian response and peace-responsive programming; (iii) promote organizational learning by identifying what works, what does not, for whom, under what circumstances, and why; and (iv) empower community, national and regional stakeholders.
4.2. Objectives
The objectives of this CPE are:
i. To provide the UNFPA Egypt CO, national stakeholders and rights-holders, the UNFPA ASRO, UNFPA Headquarters as well as a wider audience with an independent assessment of the UNFPA Egypt 11th country programme (2023-2027). ii. To broaden the evidence base to inform the design of the next programme cycle.
The specific objectives of this CPE are:
i. To provide an independent assessment of the relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of UNFPA support.
ii. To provide an assessment of the geographic and demographic coverage of UNFPA humanitarian assistance and the ability of UNFPA to connect immediate, life-saving support with long-term development objectives.
iii. To provide an assessment of the role played by the UNFPA Egypt CO in the coordination mechanisms of the UNCT, with a view to enhancing the United Nations collective contribution to national development results.
iv. To draw key conclusions from past and current cooperation and provide a set of clear, forward-looking and actionable recommendations for the next programme cycle.
4.3. Scope
Geographic Scope
The evaluation will cover nationwide country of Egypt where UNFPA implemented interventions; particularly related to sector reform and the following, particularly nine priority governorates targeted in the first phase of the National Project for Development of the Egyptian Family (including Assiut, Sohag, Qena, Menya and Beni Suef); where UNFPA implemented interventions related to on the ground awareness raising and community engagement.
Thematic Scope
The evaluation will cover the following thematic areas of the 11th CP: (i) policy and accountability; (ii) quality of care and services; (iii) gender and social norms; (iv) population change and data; and (v) adolescents and youth. In addition, the evaluation will cover cross-cutting issues, such as [human rights; gender equality; disability inclusion, etc.], and transversal functions, such as coordination; monitoring and evaluation (M&E); innovation; resource mobilization; strategic partnerships, etc.
Temporal Scope
The evaluation will cover interventions planned and/or implemented within the time period of the current CP: 2023-2027.
 

(5) Evaluation Criteria and Preliminary Evaluation Questions
5.1. Evaluation Criteria
In accordance with the methodology for CPEs outlined in section 6 (below) and in the UNFPA Evaluation Handbook, the evaluation will examine the following five OECD/DAC evaluation criteria: relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability. ( The full set of OECD/DAC evaluation criteria, their definitions and principles of use are available at: https://www.oecd.org/dac/evaluation/revised-evaluation-criteria-dec-2019.pdf. Note that OECD/DAC criteria impact, but this is beyond the scope of the CPE.) Furthermore, the evaluation will use the humanitarian-specific evaluation criteria of coverage and connectedness to investigate: (i) to what extent UNFPA has been able to provide life-saving services to affected populations that are hard-to-reach; and (ii) to work across humanitarian- development-peace nexus and contribute to building resilience.
Criterion - Definition
Relevance
The extent to which the intervention objectives and design respond to rights-holders, country, and partner/institution needs, policies, and priorities, and continue to do so if circumstances change.
Coherence
The compatibility of the intervention with other interventions in the country, sector or institution. The search for coherence applies to other interventions under different thematic areas of the UNFPA mandate which the CO implements (e.g. linkages between RH and GBV programming) and to UNFPA projects and projects implemented by other UN agencies, INGOs and development partners in the country.
Effectiveness
The extent to which the intervention achieved, or is expected to achieve, its objectives and results, including any differential results across groups.
Efficiency
The extent to which the intervention delivers, or is likely to deliver, results in an economic and timely way. Could the same results have been achieved with fewer financial or technical resources, for instance?
Sustainability
The extent to which the net rights-holders of the intervention continue, or are likely to continue (even if, or when, the intervention ends).

Humanitarian-specific criterion Definition Coverage The extent to which major population groups facing life-threatening conditions were reached by humanitarian action. Evaluators need to assess the extent of inclusion bias – that is, the inclusion of those in the groups receiving support who should not have been (disaggregated by sex, socio-economic grouping and ethnicity); as well as the extent of exclusion bias, that is, exclusion of groups who should have been covered but were not (disaggregated by sex, socio-economic grouping and ethnicity). Connectedness The extent to which activities of a short-term emergency nature are carried out in a context that takes longer-term and interconnected problems into account, that is a nexus approach, and that also indicates the complementarity of UNFPA with other partner interventions.
5.2. Preliminary Evaluation Questions
The evaluation of the country programme will provide answers to the evaluation questions (related to the above-mentioned criteria). Reflecting on the country programme theory of change, the country office has generated a set of preliminary evaluation questions that focus the CPE on the most relevant and meaningful aspects of the country programme. At the design phase (see Handbook, Chapter 2), the evaluators are expected to further refine the evaluation questions (in consultation with the CPE manager at the UNFPA Egypt CO and the ERG). In particular, they will ensure that each evaluation question is accompanied by a number of “assumptions for verification”. Thus, for each evaluation question, and based upon their understanding of the theory of change (the different pathways in the results chain and the theory’s internal logic), the evaluators are expected to formulate assumptions that, in fact, constitute the hypotheses they will be testing through data collection and analysis in order to formulate their responses to the evaluation questions. As they document the assumptions, the evaluators will be able to explain why and the extent to which the interventions did (or did not) lead towards the expected outcomes, identify what are the critical elements to success, and pinpoint other external factors that have influenced the programme and contributed to change.
Relevance
1. To what extent is the UNFPA Egypt country programme adapted in a way: (a) that is responsive to Egypt’s evolving demographic and development priorities, (b) while adequately addressing the differentiated needs of diverse population groups—including adolescents, youth, women, refugees, and persons with disabilities and governorates — and (c) remaining aligned with UNFPA’s strategic direction and global commitments such as the SDGs?
Coherence
2. To what extent has UNFPA Egypt leveraged strategic partnerships with government institutions, UN agencies, development partners, private sector and civil society organizations—particularly in areas related to RH, GBV prevention and response, youth and adolescents empowerment, and population dynamics – avoiding duplication and maximizing synergies?
Effectiveness
3. To what extent have UNFPA-supported interventions delivered their intended outputs and contributed to the achievement of country programme outcomes; including among the governorates at the local level, particularly in: (i) strengthening the agency and human capital of youth—especially girls; (ii) enhancing actors’ and institutions’ capacities to advance gender equality and promote zero tolerance for GBVAWG; (iii) improving national systems’, including local institutions, ability to provide quality and inclusive RH and GBV-related services; and (iv) reinforcing institutional coordination, monitoring and evaluation, digital transformation, statistical capacities, and SDG-focused financing for evidence-based policymaking, as well as listing the internal and external factors that hindered the achievement of the outputs?
Efficiency
4. To what extent has UNFPA Egypt country office: (a) utilized its human, financial, and administrative resources efficiently, (b) capitalized on its partnerships, and (c) applied appropriate policies, procedures, and management tools; to pursue the achievement of the country programme outputs and outcomes?
Sustainability
5. To what extent has UNFPA Egypt country programme contributed to: (a) strengthening the capacities of national institutions and implementing partners—including women, adolescents, and youth, and to (b) establishing mechanisms that ensure the long-term financing, continuation and ownership of outcomes beyond UNFPA support?
Coverage
6. To what extent have UNFPA humanitarian interventions reached all geographic areas in which affected populations (women, adolescents and youth) reside; given the current situation and resources?
Connectedness
7. To what extent has UNFPA Egypt humanitarian response both: (a) taken into account longer-term development goals outlined in the country programme results framework and (b) contributed to strengthening the capacity of local and national actors—including government line ministries, local organizations, and communities—to prepare for, respond to, and recover from humanitarian crises?
The final evaluation questions and the evaluation matrix will be presented in the design report.

(6) Approach and Methodology
6.1. Evaluation Approach
Theory-based approach
The CPE will adopt a theory-based approach that relies on an explicit theory of change, which depicts how the interventions supported by the UNFPA Egypt CO are expected to contribute to a series of results (outputs and outcomes) that contribute to the overall goal of UNFPA. The theory of change also identifies the causal links between the results, as well as critical assumptions and contextual factors that support or hinder the achievement of desired changes. A theory-based approach is fundamental for generating insights about what works, what does not and why. It focuses on the analysis of causal links between changes at different levels of the results chain that the theory of change describes, by exploring how the assumptions behind these causal links and contextual factors affect the achievement of intended results.
The theory of change will play a central role throughout the evaluation process, from the design and data collection to the analysis and identification of findings, as well as the articulation of conclusions and recommendations. The evaluation team will be required to verify the theory of change underpinning the UNFPA Egypt 11th country programme (2023-2027) (see Annex A) and use this theory of change to determine whether changes at output and outcome levels occurred (or not) and whether assumptions about change hold true. The analysis of the theory of change will serve as the basis for the evaluators to assess how relevant, coherent, effective, efficient and sustainable has the support provided by the UNFPA Egypt CO been during the period of the 11th country programme. Where applicable, the humanitarian context needs to be considered in analyzing the theory of change.
As part of the theory-based approach, the evaluators shall use a contribution analysis to explore whether evidence to support key assumptions exists, examine if evidence on observed results confirms the chain of expected results in the theory of change, and seek out evidence on the influence that other factors may have had in achieving desired results. This will enable the evaluation team to make a reasonable case about the difference that the UNFPA Egypt 11th country programme (2023-2027) made.
Participatory approach
The CPE will be based on an inclusive, transparent and participatory approach, involving a broad range of partners and stakeholders at national and sub-national level. The UNFPA Egypt CO has developed an initial stakeholder map (see Annex B) to identify stakeholders who have been involved in the preparation and implementation of the country programme, and those partners who do not work directly with UNFPA, yet play a key role in a relevant outcome or thematic area in the national context. These stakeholders include government representatives, civil society organizations, implementing partners, the private sector, academia, other United Nations organizations, donors and, most importantly, rights-holders (notably women, adolescents and youth). They can provide information and data that the evaluators should use to assess the contribution of UNFPA support to changes in each thematic area of the country programme. Particular attention will be paid to ensuring the participation of women, adolescents and young people, especially those from vulnerable and marginalized groups (e.g., young people and women with disabilities, etc.).

The CPE manager in the UNFPA Egypt CO has established an ERG comprised of key stakeholders of the country programme, including: governmental counterparts at national level, implementing partners, donor, the regional M&E adviser in UNFPA ASRO, and select staff members – See Handbook: section 1.5. The ERG will provide inputs at different stages in the evaluation process.
Mixed-method approach
The evaluation will primarily use qualitative methods for data collection, including document review, interviews, group discussions and observations during field visits, where appropriate. The qualitative data will be complemented with quantitative data to minimize bias and strengthen the validity of findings. Quantitative data will be compiled through desk review of documents, websites and online databases to obtain relevant financial data and data on key indicators that measure change at output and outcome levels. The use of innovative and context-adapted evaluation tools (including ICT) is encouraged.
These complementary approaches described above will be used to ensure that the evaluation: (i) responds to the information needs of users and the intended use of the evaluation results; (ii) upholds human rights and principles throughout the evaluation process, including through participation and consultation of key stakeholders (rights holders and duty bearers); and (iii) provides credible information about the benefits for duty bearers and rights-holders (women, adolescents and youth) of UNFPA support through triangulation of collected data.
6.2. Methodology
The evaluation team shall develop the evaluation methodology in line with the evaluation approach and guidance provided in the UNFPA Evaluation Handbook. This will help the evaluators develop a methodology that meets good quality standards for evaluation at UNFPA and the professional evaluation standards of UNEG. It is essential that, once contracted by the UNFPA Egypt CO, the evaluators acquire a solid knowledge of the UNFPA methodological framework, which includes, in particular, the Evaluation Handbook and the evaluation quality assurance and assessment principles.
The CPE will be conducted in accordance with the UNEG Norms and Standards for Evaluation,(Document available at: http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/1914.) Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation,(Document available at: http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/102.) Code of Conduct for Evaluation in the UN System (Document available at: http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/100.), and Guidance on Integrating Human Rights and Gender Equality in Evaluations.(Document available at: http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/980.) When contracted by the UNFPA Egypt CO, the evaluators will be requested to sign the UNEG Code of Conduct (UNEG Code of conduct: http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/100.) prior to starting their work.
The methodology that the evaluation team will develop builds the foundation for providing valid and evidence-based answers to the evaluation questions and for offering a robust and credible assessment of UNFPA support in Egypt. The methodological design of the evaluation shall include in particular: (i) a critical review of the country programme theory of change; (ii) an evaluation matrix ; (iii) a strategy and tools for collecting and analyzing data; and (iv) a detailed evaluation work plan and fieldwork agenda.
The evaluation matrix
The evaluation matrix is the backbone of the methodological design of the evaluation. It contains the core elements of the evaluation. It outlines (i) what will be evaluated: evaluation questions with assumptions for verification; and (ii) how it will be evaluated: data collection methods and tools and sources of information for each evaluation question and associated assumptions. The evaluation matrix plays a crucial role before, during and after data collection. The design and use of the evaluation matrix is described in Chapter 2, section 2.2.2.2 of the Handbook.
● In the design phase, the evaluators should use the evaluation matrix to develop a detailed agenda for data collection and analysis and to prepare the structure of interviews, group discussions and site visits. At the design phase, the evaluation team must enter, in the matrix, the data and information resulting from their desk (documentary review) in a clear and orderly manner.
● During the field phase, the evaluation matrix serves as a working document to ensure that the data and information are systematically collected (for each evaluation question) and are presented in an organized manner. Throughout the field phase, the evaluators must enter, in the matrix, all data and information collected. The CPE manager will ensure that the matrix is placed in a Google drive and will check the evaluation matrix on a daily basis to ensure that data and information is properly compiled. S/he will alert the evaluation team in the event of gaps that require additional data collection or if the data/information entered in the matrix is insufficiently clear/precise.
● In the reporting phase, the evaluators should use the data and information presented in the evaluation matrix to build their analysis (or findings) for each evaluation question. The fully completed matrix is an indispensable annex to the report and the CPE manager will verify that sufficient evidence has been collected to answer all evaluation questions in a credible manner. The matrix will enable users of the report to access the supporting evidence for the evaluation results. Confidentiality of respondents must be assured in how their feedback is presented in the evaluation matrix.
Finalization of the evaluation questions and related assumptions
Based on the preliminary questions presented in the present terms of reference (section 5.2) and the theory of change underlying the country programme (see Annex A), the evaluators are required to refine the evaluation questions. In their final form, the questions should reflect the evaluation criteria (section 5.1) and clearly define the key areas of inquiry of the CPE. The final evaluation questions will structure the evaluation matrix and shall be presented in the design report.
The evaluation questions must be complemented by a set of assumptions for verification that capture key aspects of how and why change is expected to occur, based on the theory of change of the country programme. This will allow the evaluators to assess whether the conditions for the achievement of outputs and the contribution of UNFPA to higher-level results, in particular at outcome level, are met. The data collection for each of the evaluation questions (and related assumptions for verification) will be guided by clearly formulated quantitative and qualitative indicators, which need to be specified in the evaluation matrix.
Sampling strategy
The UNFPA Egypt CO will provide an initial overview of the interventions supported by UNFPA, the locations where these interventions have taken place, and the stakeholders involved in these interventions. As part of this process, the UNFPA Egypt CO has produced an initial stakeholder map to identify the range of stakeholders that are directly or indirectly involved in the implementation, or affected by the implementation of the CP (see Annex B).
Building on the initial stakeholder map and based on information gathered through document review and discussions with CO staff, the evaluators will develop the final stakeholder map. From this final stakeholder map, the evaluation team will select a sample of stakeholders at national and sub-national level who will be consulted through interviews and/or group discussions during the data collection phase. These stakeholders must be selected through clearly defined criteria and the sampling approach outlined in the design report (for guidance on how to select a sample of stakeholders see Handbook, section 2.3). In the design report, the evaluators should also make explicit which groups of stakeholders were not included and why. The evaluators should aim to select a sample of stakeholders that is as representative as possible, recognizing that it will not be possible to obtain a statistically representative sample.
The evaluation team shall also select a sample of sites that will be visited for data collection, and provide the rationale for the selection of the sites in the design report. The UNFPA Egypt CO will provide the evaluators with necessary information to access the selected locations, including logistical requirements and security risks, if applicable. The sample of sites selected for visits should reflect the variety of interventions supported by UNFPA, both in terms of thematic focus and context.
The final sample of stakeholders and sites will be determined in consultation with the CPE manager, based on the review of the design report.
Data collection
The evaluation will consider primary and secondary sources of information. For detailed guidance on the different data collection methods typically employed in CPEs, see Handbook, section 2.2.3.1.
Primary data will be collected through interviews with a wide range of key informants at national and sub-national levels (e.g., government officials, representatives of implementing partners, civil society organizations, other United Nations organizations, donors, and other stakeholders), as well as focus and group discussions (e.g., with service providers and rights-holders, notably women, adolescents and youth) and direct observation during visits to selected sites. Secondary data will be collected through extensive document review, notably, but not limited to the resources assembled by the CO in a Document repository. The evaluation team will ensure that data collected is disaggregated by sex, age, location and other relevant dimensions, such as disability status, to the extent possible.
The evaluation team is expected to dedicate a total of 3 weeks for data collection in the field. The data collection tools that the evaluation team will develop (e.g, interview guides for each stakeholder categories, themes for and composition of focus groups, survey questionnaires, checklists for on-site observation) shall be presented in the design report.
Data analysis
The evaluators must enter the qualitative and quantitative data in the evaluation matrix for each evaluation question and related assumption for verification. Once the evaluation matrix is completed, the evaluators should identify common themes and patterns that will help them formulate evidence-based answers to the evaluation questions. The evaluators shall also identify aspects that should be further explored and for which complementary data should be collected, to fully answer all the evaluation questions and thus cover the whole scope of the evaluation (see Handbook, Chapter 4).
Validation mechanisms
All findings of the evaluation need to be firmly grounded in evidence. Th