Result of Service
The consultant will deliver a short-term assignment (19 working days), structured in the following tasks: Task 1: Develop Energy Sector Foresight Methodology Paper and Initial Scenarios (Pre-mission: remote) • Compile and review key data, trends, drivers, and risks affecting Turkmenistan’s energy export future (referencing national policy and programmes, UNCA, UNECE/UNESCAP energy connectivity evidence). • Draft a methodology paper that integrates: o Power system modelling and country-specific dynamics, including fossil subsidy reform, export revenue trajectories, CO₂ pricing, CBAM exposure, and water availability. o The peace-energy nexus, factoring in security, market volatility, regional interconnectivity, and broader SDG impacts. o Identified critical indicators and variables for scenario modelling (macroeconomic, geo-economic, climate, environmental, and governance dimensions). • Prepare initial scenarios to 2030 for validation and recommendations for follow-up actions. Task 2: In-Country Mission – Validation, Stakeholder Engagement, and Capacity Development (Dates: 20–23 October) • Present methodology and initial scenarios at: o SDG Fund Joint Programme event (UNDP/UNECE) o UN side event during OGT-2025. • Meet with ADB and UNECE (22 October) to discuss full-fledged 2050 foresight report and planned policy brief. • Deliver a 2–3-hour foresight capacity-building session for government stakeholders (22 October). • Conduct a half-day in-person foresight training for the UNCA Task Force (23 October). • Engage in multi-stakeholder consultations (government, private sector, civil society) to review data and assumptions. • Refine methodology and initial scenarios based on feedback. Task 3: Capacity Development and Presenations (Post-mission, remote) • Deliver two additional remote half-day foresight and horizon scanning training sessions for the UNCA Task Force (October–November). • Deliver two presentations of the final scenario findings and possible recommendations (dates to be confirmed). Task 4: Develop a Methodological Approach for the UNCA horizon scanning exercise on Prioritized SDG Transitions Building on the foresight methods and scenario approaches developed for the energy sector and capacity development sessions, the consultant will support the UN RCO and UN Country Team in designing a practical, replicable methodological approach for the upcoming UN Country Analysis (UNCA) update with a focus on prioritized SDG transitions in Turkmenistan. This task will include: • Adapting foresight and scenario planning tools to analyze interlinkages and drivers of SDG transitions (e.g., green energy, social protection, water/food systems). • Embedding anticipatory and systems-thinking approaches, as called for by the new generation UNCA guidance, to help the UNCT and national partners identify key levers, data needs, and stakeholder engagement strategies for SDG acceleration. • Developing a concise methodological note with step-by-step guidance, recommended indicators, and key data sources, drawing on the latest UNCA guidance. • Framing the approach to be usable for future UNCA cycles and relevant for both UN and partners.
Work Location
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Expected duration
3 months (19 working days)
Duties and Responsibilities
Turkmenistan joined the United Nations on 2 March 1992 as a new independent state. Since then, the UN has been supporting Turkmenistan to achieve its national priorities, which from 2015 respond to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Turkmenistan’s energy sector, underpinned by natural gas and electricity exports, is a cornerstone for sustainable national development and a source of regional cooperation, investment, and stability. The sector faces multiple challenges, including market volatility, infrastructure constraints, climate and security risks, but also holds opportunities for transformation – particularly via cross-border initiatives such as TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) and TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan power transmission line), and innovations under the peace-energy nexus. As announced by the President of Turkmenistan in September 2025 at the 80th session of the UNGA, Turkmenistan will submit a draft resolution on “The Key Role of Reliable and Stable Energy Connectivity in Ensuring Sustainable Development.” The UN country team (UNCT) in consultations with the Government identified and agreed on the UN strategic response to the Government’s development priorities in the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for 2021-2025 (UNSDCF). The current UNSDCF 2021-2025 includes interventions related to energy transition in the Outcome 3: There is effective design and implementation of disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation and mitigation measures, enabling a more rational use of resources, increased resilience, and a ‘green’ economy transition. The new UNSDCF 2026–2030 prioritizes a just, low-carbon energy transition as a central component of sustainable economic diversification and climate resilience. The framework aims to reduce the economy’s dependence on fossil fuels by scaling up renewable energy – including a proposed national target to reach 10% renewables in the energy mix by 2030 – improving energy efficiency and reducing methane and greenhouse gas emissions in line with the country’s Paris Agreement and Global Methane Pledge commitments. Key areas of UN support include policy and institutional reform, enabling investments in clean energy, mainstreaming resource efficiency and circular economy principles, and strengthening linkages between energy, water, and sustainable agriculture within a nexus approach. Integrated regional initiatives, energy connectivity, and access to international climate finance are emphasized to facilitate technology transfer, capacity development, and inclusive growth, while ensuring that the social impacts of transition are managed and that vulnerable groups benefit from new economic opportunities. Turkmenistan’s National Commitments to SDG Transformation at the SDG Summit include ensuring green energy transition and accession to the Global Methane Pledge. In 2024, UNCT led by UN RCO managed to drive policy shifts by overcoming sectoral silos and engaged all relevant government stakeholders in a closed-door Hard Talk on methane reduction and renewable energy uptake which resulted in identified further recommendations for joint actions, including a peace-energy foresight exercise. This resulted in the leveraging resources and implementation in 2025 of the SDG Fund UN Joint Programme “Support to Policy Making and Building National Capacity towards Green Energy Transition in Turkmenistan”. Recent UNCA indicates a need for forward-looking planning to maximize export revenues and mitigate risks up to 2050, aligning energy policy and investments with SDG progress and the national vision. Through the UNCA update process the UNSDCF outcome indicators progress is monitored and discussed with national partners and other stakeholders. The new generation UN Country Analysis (UNCA) calls for strengthening anticipatory, forward-looking analysis and the institutionalization of foresight capabilities. This approach goes beyond simply predicting future trends – it develops the skills and systems needed to scan for emerging risks and opportunities, develop and update robust scenarios, and integrate these insights into evidence-based policy and investment decisions. In Turkmenistan’s context, the UNCA stresses the need for both the United Nations system and national partners to build and sustain internal foresight capacity, embedding scenario-planning and horizon scanning as continuous, collaborative processes within institutions. The overall objective is to empower local actors and the UNCT to jointly anticipate disruptions, identify pathways for energy transition and economic transformation, and effectively manage uncertainty related to market shifts, technology change, climate risks, and regional peace-energy interdependencies. In line with this, the intended consultancy aims not only to deliver scenario-based revenue projections for natural gas and electricity and its impact on sociao-economic growth, but also to transfer methodologies, conduct practical foresight capacity building, and institutionalize these approaches for long-term impact and SDG acceleration. Overall, Turkmenistan’s investments in forward-looking actions in the areas of Green Energy Transition are crucial for enabling sustainable development and climate resilience, creating new jobs, stimulating growth and harvesting more social and health benefits.
Qualifications/special skills
-Bachelor’s degree in Energy Engineering, Environmental Science, Economics, or Political Science is required. -Relevant practical experience, at least 5 years in the energy sector foresight, scenario planning, and quantitative energy-economic modelling (preferably in power system analysis and export revenue forecasting) is required. -Proven experience with institutional capacity building and delivery of practical foresight training to government and multilateral teams is required. -Knowledge of Central Asian and regional energy market dynamics, including policy, regulatory, and transboundary infrastructure is required. -Familiarity with SDG financing, climate policy, carbon pricing, and bankability analysis for energy investments is required. -Prior experience coordinating with regional UN bodies and development banks desirable; strong stakeholder engagement, communication, and reporting skills required.
Languages
Fluency in English language is required. Knowledge of Russian language is desirable.
Additional Information
The expert will work home-based with an in-country mission. The travel costs will be covered by UN Joint programe.
No Fee
THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.
