The Government of Turkmenistan, with the support of UNFPA, is advancing its commitment to data-driven policy formulation by leveraging two landmark national data sources: the 2022 Population and Housing Census and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS7). This consultancy aims to undertake a comprehensive analysis of both datasets, providing a nuanced and interconnected understanding of the country's demographic landscape and its implications for key development priorities.

This initiative, a step towards informing national strategies and accelerating progress on global commitments, including SDGs, is aimed at ensuring development efforts are targeted to reach the most vulnerable populations.

The 2022 Census offers a wealth of data on the country's population size, structure, and dynamics. It provides official figures on key demographic indicators, including marital status, fertility, and migration flows, which are essential for long-term socio-economic planning.

Complementing this, the UNICEF- and UNFPA-supported MICS7 offers an in-depth look at the situation of women and children across the country. Its dedicated modules on sexual and reproductive health and gender-based violence provide critical, internationally comparable data that is foundational for monitoring progress on SDG 5 and other related goals.

The consultancy's analysis will be structured into two main, interconnected areas:

MICS7 Analysis: SRHR and Violence Against Women

This component will focus on an in-depth analysis of the MICS7 data, with a specific emphasis on reproductive health and violence against women. The analysis will compare the findings with the 2022 Survey on the Health and Status of a Woman in the Family to identify emerging trends and dynamics. It will also generate crucial indicators related to:

• SDG 5.2.1: The proportion of ever-partnered women and girls aged 15 and older who have experienced physical, sexual, or psychological violence by a current or former intimate partner.
• SDG 5.2.2: The proportion of women and girls aged 15 and older who have been subjected to sexual violence by persons other than an intimate partner.
• SDG 5.6.1: The proportion of women aged 15-49 who make their own informed decisions regarding sexual relations, contraceptive use, and reproductive healthcare.

Census Analysis: Demographic Dynamics

This component will conduct a comprehensive demographic analysis of the 2022 Census data, focusing on three key thematic volumes:

• Marital Status and Household Composition: The 2022 census contains a dedicated volume on the "Sex and age composition of the population and status in marriage". Analyzing this data to provide insight into the social fabric by examining the distribution of the population by marital status—single, married, divorced, or widowed—and disaggregate this information by age, sex, and region. The official census also includes data on the number and composition of households, which provides a complete picture of family structures across the country's urban and rural divides.   
• Fertility Dynamics: The census includes a section on "Fertility" and provides graphical representations of the "average number of children born per woman" by region. The consultancy will require a careful examination of these figures and their implications for the country’s population growth focusing on revealing regional disparities and help inform targeted policy interventions.   
• Migration Flows: The 2022 Census contains a volume on "Migration and Citizenship". The consultant's task is to analyze this official data, as well as the data on the population’s distribution between urban and rural areas, to provide a clear picture of the country's demographic composition.  The consultant's task is to scrutinize the official "Migration and Citizenship" volume of the census and reconcile the official data with these widely reported emigration trends.

The findings from both analyses will inform the evidence base for national socio-economic and health programmes. The consultancy will produce two separate, high-quality analytical reports—one for the MICS7 data and one for the Census data—including executive summaries, detailed analyses, and evidence-based recommendations.

Scope of work:

(Description of services, activities, or outputs)

The consultant will be responsible for two separate products, each with its own set of activities and deliverables.

TASK 1: Analysis of MICS7 Data on Reproductive Health and Violence Against Women (14 working days)

This task focuses on analyzing the MICS7 data to understand the situation of women and children, with a specific focus on reproductive health and gender-based violence. The analysis will compare findings with the 2022 Survey on the Health and Status of a Woman in the Family to identify trends.

• Develop an inception report outlining the methodology, purpose and other details related to the analysis.  
• Conduct an in-depth analysis of the MICS7 results, with a specific focus on the Violence Against Women module, using a disaggregated approach by age, sex, residence etc.
• Analyze data from the men's and women's questionnaires to gain a holistic understanding of reproductive health and gender equality topics.
• Generate key indicators prioritized by UNFPA, including:
  • SDG 5.2.1: The proportion of ever-partnered women and girls aged 15 and older who have experienced physical, sexual, or psychological violence by a current or former intimate partner.
  • SDG 5.2.2: The proportion of women and girls aged 15 and older who have been subjected to sexual violence by persons other than an intimate partner.
  • SDG 5.6.1: The proportion of women aged 15-49 who make their own informed decisions regarding sexual relations, contraceptive use, and reproductive healthcare.
  • Draft a comprehensive analytical report, detailing the methodology, key findings, and a comparative analysis of the MICS7 data with the Survey on the Health and Status of a Woman in the Family in Turkmenistan.
• Draft an initial report and conduct consultations with UNFPA and key national stakeholders (such as State Committee of Turkmenistan on Statistics, Ministry of Health and Medical Industry of Turkmenistan) for collecting feedback on the initial draft report.

TASK 2: Demographic Analysis of the 2022 Census Data (14 working days)

This task involves a detailed demographic analysis of the 2022 Census data, focusing on marital status, fertility, and migration. The findings will be used to inform long-term national socio-economic programs and provide a nuanced understanding of Turkmenistan's population dynamics.

• Development of the methodological framework that outlines key data sources to be used (census data, data from administrative sources, other sources of data), key analytical methods to be employed, key areas to be covered by the analysis, and timespan of data to be used, where applicable. The methodology will be finalised in consultation with the UNFPA Turkmenistan CO team.
• Conduct a detailed review of the thematic volumes of the 2022 Census, specifically "Sex and age composition of the population and status in marriage," "Fertility," and "Migration and Citizenship".
• Analyze the distribution of the population by marital status, disaggregating the data by age, sex, and region (velayat) to provide insight into social structures and evolving family dynamics. 
• Examine official fertility data, with a specific focus on the "average number of children born per woman" and its graphical representations by region.   
• Scrutinize the official "Migration and Citizenship" volume and the data on the population's urban and rural distribution to provide a clear picture of the country's demographic composition. Reconcile this official data with widely reported emigration trends.
• Designing a comprehensive analytical report summarizing the key findings, conclusions, and policy implications written in a clear and accessible manner.

TASK 3: Final Reporting and Presentation (9 working days)

This final task combines the outputs of the two previous tasks into a comprehensive set of final deliverables, including finalized reports and presentations for both the MICS7 and Census analyses. 

• Incorporate feedback from UNFPA and national stakeholders to finalize both the MICS7 report and the Census report.
• Prepare TWO SEPARATE, high-quality analytical reports, including an executive summary, detailed analysis, and evidence-based recommendations for policy and programmatic interventions. The reports must be produced in both Russian and Turkmen languages, which includes proper translation and proofreading.
• Prepare presentations, one for each report, summarizing the key findings, policy implications, and recommendations. 
• Deliver the presentations on the report's key findings to UNFPA and national partners.
• Submit the final consultancy report to UNFPA, including both finalized analytical reports and a brief summary of the overall work completed.

The national consultant will also be responsible for the production of the report both in Russian and Turkmen languages, which might include proper translation and proofreading.

The IC is expected to deliver all services and outputs to the UNFPA Country Office in Turkmenistan via online mode and in-person. At the same time, the consultant will be expected to achieve the following overall deliverables:

Deliverable 1: A detailed work plan and methodological framework for conducting both the MICS7 and Census data analyses, outlining data sources, analytical methods, and key areas for both reports by October 20th.

Deliverable 2: A draft report for the MICS7 analysis, including methodology, initial findings, and a comparative analysis. This will be submitted for feedback from UNFPA and national stakeholders by November 3rd.

Deliverable 3: A draft report for the Census demographic analysis, including data tables and charts, submitted for feedback from UNFPA and national stakeholders by November 24th.

Deliverable 4: A finalized, high-quality MICS7 report in Russian and Turkmen languages, incorporating all feedback and detailing research findings and recommendations for policy and programmatic interventions by December 1st.

Deliverable 5: A finalized, high-quality Census report in Russian and Turkmen languages, detailing demographic findings and recommendations, and addressing all feedback received by December 3rd

Deliverable 6: Two presentations delivered to UNFPA and key national partners, summarizing the final MICS7 report's and Census report's findings, policy implications, and recommendations by December 9th

Deliverable 7: Final Consultancy Report to UNFPA by December 15th.

• A Master's degree in a relevant field such as demography, statistics, sociology, public health, or a related social science discipline.
• A minimum of 5 years of experience in statistical data analysis is required.
• OR Bachelor degree in respective field with additional 2 relevant years of relevant experience
• Experience working with government bodies, specifically national statistics committees or similar state entities, is an asset.
• Demonstrated expertise in quantitative and qualitative research methods.
• Experience in producing high-quality analytical reports, and presentations for a diverse audience, including government officials, UN agencies, and civil society organizations.
• Familiarity with the national development context of Turkmenistan, including key national strategies and policies.
• Fluency in oral and written Turkmen and Russian is required. Knowledge of the English language would be an asset.

The consultancy fee will be calculated based on the NOC level of the UN Salary Scale for National Officers categories, effective 1 November 2020 and will be paid in a lump sum upon quality provision of the deliverables.

COA: 71305, FPA90, 54700, TKM05PDD, MICS, PU0074 - 20 working days

COA: 71305, FPA90, 54700, TKM05PDD, CENSUS, PU0074 - 17 working days