The year 2018 was a pivotal year for Ethiopia’s history and marked a new era in internal politics and state-society relations. Following years of unrest, the new Prime Minister Dr. Ahmed Abiy signalled an opening of political space. Key policy priority areas for the new administration include peace and stability, broadening the political space and strengthening multiparty system, instituting Rule of Law, improving productivity, stabilizing the economy, encouraging active political participation and empowering youth and women. The new Prime Minister also committed to the organization of the 2020 General Elections in accordance with the Constitution. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced an election for August 2020 however the COVID-19 pandemic forced an indefinite postponement of the election until the crisis significantly abates. Regardless of the postponement, the upcoming election is expected to be one of the most competitive in the recent history of Ethiopia. Tensions within and between political parties, along with ongoing ethnic conflicts across the country have increased the risk of electoral disputes and electoral violence. There is a strong need to pre-empt electoral violence including by establishing systemic institutional responses and redress mechanisms.
As part of the UNDP Ethiopia “Supporting Elections for Ethiopia’s Democracy Strengthening (SEEDS)” project and the EC-UNDP Joint Task Force on Electoral Assistance (JTF) “Sustaining Peace through Elections” effort, UNDP shall assist NEBE with the development of an Electoral Violence Early Response (EVER) system . The objective of the system is to provide NEBE with the capacity to efficiently and coherently monitor, manage, and respond to violence throughout the electoral process. In this context, UNDP Ethiopia and the EC-UNDP JTF, in collaboration with the UNDP Crisis Bureau in New York, is looking for a Senior Consultant to develop composite risk indices and risk models. The work will be carried out remotely over 60 days between May and December 2020. The Senior Consultant shall report to the UNDP SEEDS Chief Technical Advisor.
Scope of the assignment:
The overall purpose of this assignment is to support analytical efforts to prevent and respond to electoral violence ahead of Ethiopia’s forthcoming general election. Based on quantitative perception data, socio-economic data, and incident reports, the Senior Consultant shall propose, develop, and test tools to generate risk scores for all regions, zones and woredas (districts) in the country. The Senior Consultant shall collaborate with developers from the United Nations International Computing Center (UNICC) to integrate both elements into an IT platform and mobile app that will enable NEBE to identify risks, monitor incidents, and coordinate responses to potential or actual electoral violence.
The Senior Consultant shall undertake the following specific duties:
The Senior Consultant is expected to work in close coordination with UNDP Ethiopia, UNDP SEEDS, and JTF.
The key deliverables expected from the Senior Consultant are:
Review available humanitarian/ development/ security data sets and conduct statistical analyses to identify relevant correlations affecting risks of violence:
Review and refine the data collection methodology applied by SEEDS so far:
Propose a method for, develop and test an electoral violence composite risk index. Proposal should be presented in:
Propose a method to develop and test a risk model, incorporating AI and ML techniques, and where possible, real-time data (i.e. local online news, Twitter, Facebook), in collaboration with UNDP Crisis Bureau.
Collaborate with developers to integrate the composite index and risk model into the IT platform.
Monitor the system once operational and incorporate any minor adjustments, including the possibility of in-country capacity development to ensure sustainability
Develop a final report comprising actions, challenges, lessons and good practices.
Ethical Considerations, Confidentiality And Proprietary Interests:
1. Review available data sets and conduct statistical analyses to identify relevant correlations. Estimated work effort (in working days), 5 days
2. Review and refine the data collection methodology applied so far. Estimated work effort (in working days), 5 days
3. Propose a method for, develop and test an electoral violence composite risk index. Estimated work effort (in working days), 15 days
4. Propose a method for, develop and test a risk model. Estimated work effort (in working days), 10 days
5. Collaborate with developers to integrate the composite index and risk model and into the IT platform. Estimated work effort (in working days), 5 days
6. Monitor the system once operational and incorporate any minor adjustments. Estimated work effort (in working days, 15 days
7. Develop a final report comprising actions, challenges, lessons and good practices. Estimated work effort (in working days), 5 days
Total number of days, 60 days
Payment milestones against deliverables:
The successful expert shall receive payments upon certification of the completed tasks satisfactorily, as per the milestones shown below. The days are spread across the contractual period according to need with room for flexibility.
Institutional Arrangement/Reporting Relationships:
The senior consultant will be reporting to the Chief Technical Advisor. The senior consultant will work closely with the SEEDS, EC-UNDP JTF, and the Crisis Bureau in New York.
Criteria for selection of the best offer:
Applicants are expected to submit their CVs, Academic Credentials, Work Certifications and any other relevant credentials.
Qualified Individual Consultants (ICs) are expected to submit both Technical and Financial Proposals. The Technical Proposal should include how the IC will deliver the expected key functions listed in this ToR.
Criteria & Weight Distribution:
Technical Competence (based on credentials and technical proposal): 70%
Relevant Educational qualification- Max 05 points
Experience of independently carrying out comprehensive quantative data analysis – Max 15 Points
Experience of designing composite indexes – Max 15 Points
In-depth understanding of risk modeling and machine learning – Max 15 Points
Interview – Max 20 Points
Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70% of the total technical points) would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.
Financial (Lower Offer):30%
Financial Proposal Max - 30
Total Score - Technical Score (70%) + Financial Score (30%) = 100
UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence.
UNDP does not tolerate sexual exploitation and abuse, any kind of harassment, including sexual harassment, and discrimination. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks.
Annexes (click on the hyperlink to access the documents):
This is a critical time for the world. At UNDP, we see this period as a huge opportunity to advance the global sustainable development agenda. In September 2015, world leaders adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. UNDP is working to strengthen new frameworks for development, disaster risk reduction and climate change. We support countries' efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, or Global Goals, which will guide global development priorities through 2030.